Why do I do it to myself? Why do I convince myself that maybe this time it will be different? What, in a lifetime of supporting Spurs, lead me to a point where I could write this and think it was rational to predict we might win?

I spent a lot of hours, not that long ago, comparing Tottenham to The Wire, and yet, somehow, I failed to learn my own lesson. I could probably re-watch that whole series and think that this time Frank Sobotka will be alright, that Michael and Dukie have a bright future coming and that Wallace is will enjoy a life in the country.  But that’s not way it happened.  And Spurs were never going to go to Madrid and win – how did I convince myself they might?

From the moment Adebayor (of course it had to be an ex-Arsenal play to inflict the most misery) but the home team 1-0 up, I should have known.  What did I say at that point? “We actually play better when we’re behind, we’ve got more points from losing positions than any other Premiership team” (I actually said these words, you can check with the bartender at Old Castle in Midtown should you doubt me…) Then Crouch suffered a rush of blood to the head, something that is particularly disorientating when you are 6’7″, and was sent off for two rash, unnecessary challenges.  Within 15 minutes. I racked my brains thinking about how we had played well with 10 men a couple of times this season.  At half-time, 1-0 seemed okay, maybe we could hold off and maybe come away with a slim deficit to overcome at the Lane.

Then Adebayor again.

And a screamer from DiMaria.

And a soft volley that Gomes should’ve stopped from Ronaldo.

4-0.

The one good thing? There is no way I will be able to talk myself into us coming back from this.  Even I accept it is over. Real Madrid is to Tottenham as Kenard is to Omar. We’re done for.  As for me, I will try never to get so caught up and take my heart over my head again. I will not be so quick to buy into a pipe dream – if you wanted to try and sell me some magic beans or have me invest in a toy factory at the North Pole, well you have missed your chance.  Sixth place and the loss of our best players is what lays ahead in the next few months, you can’t convince me of anything else.

Bollocks.

On Tuesday, Tottenham head to the Bernabeu to take on Real Madrid in the quarter-finals of the Champions League. Wow, I did not think a couple of years ago I would be able to type that – from away defeat to Grimsby in 2005, to taking on the most successful team in the history of the most prestigious European club competition.  Anything from this point on really should be a bonus for Spurs fans – but it’s hard to look at the game and not see a marvelous opportunity to progress even further.

First of all, there is some debate as to who will actually be lining up for Real in the first leg: Ronaldo was “definitely out” but looks likely to start; Benzema is perhaps going to miss out; but most importantly, Marcelo, the wing-back, is doubtful.  With Tottenham’s main threat coming from the pace and skill of Bale on the left flank, Madrid not having their first choice defender in this area of the pitch could be a big issue for them.  Of course, as Maicon can attest, even the highest rated players can be made to look ridiculous by Bale this season (and nobody likes to look ridiculous)

Real Madrid are coming into this game following an embarrassing home defeat to Sporting Gijon; a loss that not only ends any slim chance they had of capturing the title away from Barcelona, but also brought to an end an incredible 9 year, 150 game span in which Jose Mourinho had not lost a home league game as manager of Madrid, Internazionale, Chelsea and Porto.  Spurs, meanwhile, have been in mediocre form, with consecutive 0-0 draws against relegation threatened West Ham and Wigan in their most recent games. However, it is hard to read too much into Saturday’s result at the DW Stadium, as the line-up was considerably different to how I expect us to start in Spain.  A lack of width will be replaced with the twin threats of the aforementioned Bale on the left, and the speedy Lennon on the right.  Some fans have been frustrated by the fact that Redknapp clearly is focusing on the Champions League and resting players for Premiership games – I actually agree with him on this though. There is no point just trying to qualify each year for the competition, football is all about winning trophies not just making more money for the club.  While I understand that being in the Champions League allows you to attract a better standard of player, I believe this year we have done so well that we should look to go as far as we can, at least to give it our very best shot.

The worst thing about this fixture is, I really think Tottenham have a great chance to progress. With Crouch leading the line and Van der Vaart, returning to his former club with a point to prove, playing off him, Spurs will cause all sorts of problems for the Madrid defence, the type of which they have not been used to facing in a weakened La Liga.  Modric and Ozil are similar players and whoever is more effective between the two of them could swing the balance of the tie.  Obviously Ronaldo will be the most talented player on the pitch should he play (which I think he will), but if he is not fully fit or gets frustrated early on, it may be possible for Assou-Ekotto to stifle him (did I really just say that I thought Assou-Ekotto could stop Ronaldo? I’m setting myself up for a big fall, and I really should know better)

Look, I just cannot pick against Tottenham here, my brain is saying that Real Madrid have more quality and individual skill than us and this will likely be where it ends, but my heart is making me believe we can do it. We will do it. The Spurs fans in Spain will sing us to a fantastic 2-1 away win and then at the Lane next week, we will finish the job with a 3-1 victory.  And who cares if I sound like John Locke here but – Don’t tell me what we can’t do!

Other Predictions

I don’t mean to blow my own trumpet, but in the last 16 I went 7/8 in predicting the winners (see for yourself here) missing out only on the Valencia vs Schalke tie – so, to prove I have not yet learnt you should never write off the Germans, let’s start with them:

Inter vs Schalke – Inter Milan are rubbish, seriously, they should not be getting through to the Champions League semi-finals this year. But somehow they got through against an out-of-sorts Bayern and are now facing a team that is 11th in the Bundesliga. Somehow, the reigning Champions will be in the last four.

Chelsea vs Man United – I have a horrible feeling that Chelsea will get revenge for that defeat in Moscow back in…wait, what’s that Wayne?  Umm okay, I guess Man United will get through then, because of their…”passion” I guess we’ll call it.

Barcelona vs Shaktar Donetsk – this is controversial, I know, but it’s not just because Tottenham (or Madrid) will play the winners in the semi-finals.  I genuinely think Shaktar will knock out the favourites. Why? I think Barca have not been firing on all cylinders recently and the Ukrainians are exactly the sort of team who can take advantage of that, especially with the second leg being played in Donetsk.  Call me crazy, but I’m going for Shaktar to go through.

It’s an action-packed week in Europe, with quarterfinal fixtures in both UEFA club competitions–Champions League and Europa League. The Champions League gets all the attention of course, with the eight remaining teams playing the first leg of the quarterfinals on Tuesday and Wednesday.  On Tuesday, Spurs make the trip to Spain to play Real Madrid, and defending champions Inter Milan host surprising Schalke.  On Wednesday, it’s a battle of English rivals at Stamford Bridge–Chelsea versus Manchester United; while another surprise quarterfinalist, Shakhtar Donetsk, make the long trip from eastern Ukraine to play ball-hogging Barcelona.  They’ll all turn around and play the return legs next week (April 12-13).

But after gorging on those four matches Tuesday and Wednesday, don’t neglect the Europa League quarterfinals–all eight (1st leg) fixtures will be played Thursday, with a bunch of interesting clubs on display: three from Portugal (Porto, Benfica, Braga); two from the Netherlands (Twente and PSV); and one each from Spain, Ukraine and Russia (Villareal, Spartak Moscow, and Dynamo Kiev).

See below for all the fixture details–and check back here during the week for match previews and reports.

Champions League Quarterfinals – 1st Leg (all matches kickoff at 20:45CET = 2:45pmET)

Tuesday – 5 April 2011

Real Madrid		vs		Tottenham
Referee: Felix Brych (GER) – Stadium: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid (ESP)
Internazionale		vs		Schalke
Referee: Martin Atkinson (ENG) – Stadium: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan (ITA)

Wednesday – 6 April 2011

Chelsea		vs		Man. United
Referee: TBD – Stadium: Stamford Bridge, London (ENG)
Barcelona		vs		Shakhtar Donetsk
Referee: TBD – Stadium: Camp Nou, Barcelona (ESP)

Europa League Quarterfinals – 1st Leg

Thursday – 7 April 2011

Porto		vs		Spartak Moskva
Referee: TBD – Stadium: Estádio do Dragão, Porto (POR)
Benfica		vs		PSV
Referee: TBD – Stadium: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisbon (POR)
Villarreal		vs		Twente
Referee: TBD – Stadium: Estadio El Madrigal, Villarreal (ESP)
Dynamo Kyiv		vs		Braga
Referee: TBD – Stadium: Valeriy Lobanovskiy Stadium, Kyiv (UKR)

Part 2 of our 4-part guide to the Interlull.  We choose three fixtures taking place today: one intra-British Euro2012 qualifier and two international friendlies–including one taking place this evening in New Jersey, featuring the best player in the world:

Saturday, March 26

Wales-England in Cardiff (11amET, ESPN3.com): This game got less interesting once Gareth Bale went down with an injury in the Welsh training camp.  We’re not too familiar with the rest of Wales’ current squad–a few Premier League players, but mostly guys playing at the Championship level (including striker Craig Bellamy).  We will be looking for young Arsenal midfielder Aaron Ramsey, likely facing off against his club teammate Jack Wilshere.

The latter’s stock has risen to new heights after Arsenal’s battles with Barcelona in the Champions League–one even heard the phrase “the English Xavi” being tossed about.  Capello did a wonderful job managing expectations before England’s last match in December–after telling the press he would essentially be building the English side around Wilshere, Capello compared him to a few other midfielders he’s managed–Franco Baresi, Paolo Maldini, and Raul! Nice job Fabio..

Capello’s come under increasing criticism for the way he’s handling the England squad–the latest kerfuffle involved who will wear that all-important piece of cloth on their arm today.  Listen to this past week’s Guardian Football Weekly (Extraaah!) pod for a discussion of whether Capello is “hopefully inept and phoning it in for the money”, including some mention of a north-south/Terry vs Ferdinand divide in the English squad which Capello has failed to address.

Portugal-Chile in Leiria (5pmET, ESPN Deportes): Chile was one of the more exciting teams in South Africa last summer; unfortunately they recently parted ways with the brilliant enigmatic Argentinian Marcelo Bielsa who had managed them since 2007 (interestingly, Bielsa and the USSF are now talking about bring him to the US as technical director for the USMNT.  On Chile’s squad, look for Udinese’s starlet striker Alexis Sánchez.  Portugal will be without their supernova CR7, but will still boast a high-profile lineup: Carvalho and Pepe of Real Madrid, Raul Meireles (Liverpool), Nani (Man U).

USA-Argentina in the Meadowlands, NJ (7pmET, ESPN2 & Univision): see our senior USMNT analyst’s preview of the USA squad.  For La Albiceleste, quite a few the stars have flown in to Jersey: Messi and Mascherano from Barcelona, di Maria from Madrid, Zanetti and Cambiasso from Milan.  Watch also for youngster Javier Pastore who has been starring for Palermo in Serie A, but may be sold off to the highest bidder this summer, with the usual suspects interested–though he has said he’s in no rush to leave Palermo.