Champions League

Champions League Power Ranking + Probability Distribution

February 18, 2014 — by Suman

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Champions League

Champions League Power Ranking + Probability Distribution

February 18, 2014 — by Suman

Here’s a quick stab I took at a power ranking/subjective probability distribution (i.e., my personal view of the chances of each side winning the whole thing). I did this without looking at where the bookies are putting the odds–scroll down for more on that:

The Contenders

1. Bayern (17.5%)
2. Chelsea (12.5%)
3. Real Madrid (10%)
Barcelona (10%)
PSG (10%)
Man City (10%)

The Hopefuls

(These guys could make a run deep into the tournament if they get hot & lucky – cf. Chelsea 2012)

7. Borussia Dortmund (7.5%)
8. Atletico (7.5%)
9. Arsenal (5%)
10. Man Utd (5%)

The Pretenders

Lucky to be here (distribute the remaining 5% among them)

11. Galatasaray
12. Bayer Leverkusen
13. AC Milan
14. Schalke
15. Zenit
16. Olympiacos

Our resident Online Betting Expert @UCCoachLarry subsequently provided some context:

Via http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner:

Munich 9/4 or 5/2
Real 9/2
Barca 5 or 11/2
Man City 11 or 12
Chelsea 11 or 12
Atl, PSG, BVB, ManU 14 to 16
Ars 33 (28 lowest 40 highest)
Milan 50 (or 66)
Everyone else 100 to 500

so

Munich about 30%
Real 18%
Barca 16%
ManC and Chel 8-9%
Atl, PSG, BVB, ManU 6-7%
Ars 3%

Everyone else: thanks for betting

So I undersold Bayern, oversold Chelsea. Interesting that Real and Barça are favored so much more than Chelsea and City. Also interesting that United is favored more than Arsenal–but as was pointed out to me, that’s primarily because of the draw: United are likely to get by Olympiacos whereas Arsenal are unlikely to get past Bayern. I didn’t take into account the draw, which is just stupid. But even then, overall I wasn’t that far off the market distribution.

We’ll revisit my subjective distribution as well as the market odds as the tournament progresses–as well as come out with updated power rankings, based both on performance on the Champions League and domestic results.