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Commentary England Preview

Ducks To Shatter To Duck Dust At Anfield; Liverpool Preview, Stoke Post Mortem

August 31, 2012 — by Rob Kirby — 5

Arsenal has a crunch match against Liverpool up at Anfield on Sunday (8:30 EST, Fox Soccer Channel). Both teams have yet to win a game this season, although it’s not quite crisis intervention time, as it’s only the third game in. Still, Arsenal has yet to score a goal, which is worrying since we just sold the player who scored 40% of our goals last season. Coupled with that, we sold the one who provided the most assists. Also, Liverpool nearly beat the champions last weekend in their 2-2 home draw with Manchester City. I don’t know that we could have done the same. In fact, I’m pretty sure we couldn’t. However, I don’t know that Liverpool could do so again, either.

Liverpool get Daniel Agger back from suspension, while reports have Laurent Koscielny in contention to return to the central defence, with Wojciech Szczesny facing a fitness test on Saturday. Liverpool have bolstered their ranks with the likes of the impressive Joe Allen (Brendan Rodgers’ playmaker at Swansea) and almost-Gunner Nuri Sahin, on loan from Madrid. More on Sahin to follow. They’ve also shipped out Charlie Adam to Stoke and loaned Jay Spearing to Bolton, Andy Carroll to West Ham. As a team stacked with dead wood ourselves, we could learn a thing or two there. But surely they can’t dislike Adam so much as to subject him to the knuckledraggers at Stoke.

Arsenal embark on a tough stretch of sorts. After Liverpool, we get a potential breather against Southampton at home, yet whenever we think we’ve got it in the bag, we blow it. Next we travel to the Eithad to play City and all our former players, swiftly followed by Chelsea at home. That would be the Chelsea of Hazard, Oscar, Mata and more. The team that’s been kicking ass while we’ve gone goalless. The team stacked with all the young stars we missed out on. Damn you, Chelsea and your 2012 Champions League medal and your sesquiquintillion quadrillions!

Of these four, most would expect us to get three points against Southampton, but to do that we will have to actually score. And even if we’re thinking we’ll scoreless-draw our way through the season (Invincibles Mk II), that would assume our “watertight” defense will hold up forever. We conceded 49 goals last season and have brought in no new defenders. We sold Alex Song to Barcelona. Everyone in the back 5 has another year under their belt, which is great and commendable and tentatively encouraging, but without a total rethink, the defensive coaching nous of Steve Bould can only go so far.

Anyhoo, let’s put it in perspective. Rewind a year and you’ll clearly see the comparatively kickass position in which we currently find ourselves. Not so much because now is so kickass, but this time last year we were bodyslammed into the deepest nadir in modern memory.

Favorite son Cesc Fabregas had just left, talented ugly stepchild Samir Nasri edged as close to the exit as humanly possible, essentially melding into the exit as he crammed into the tiny space at the threshold. Wilshere had injured his Achilles in the meaningless Emirates Cup. We’d drawn against Newcastle, which saw Gervinho get sent off and a three match ban for Song in light of video replay. We had then proceeded to lose 2-0 to Liverpool at home, Emmanuel Frimpong shown red and sent off. None of the transfer-deadline reinforcements had arrived. We relied on Robin van Persie, Mr. Glass, to stay fit for the season, which anyone could tell you was stupidity meets crazy talk (and yet it came to pass…). For Manchester United, like tomorrow, the third match of the season, Arsene was selecting players we’d never heard of from the academy to deputize: Nico Yennaris, Ignasi Miquel, Francis Coquelin, etc. Carl Jenkinson was playing in the Premier League for the first time. Armand Traore was one of our “experienced heads” at the back. And for good measure, Wenger threw on Oxlade-Chamberlain for an ill-timed debut, chucked onto the park for a trial by inferno fire as we were well into the the calamitous, humiliating 8-2 mega mauling at Old Trafford.

So, a year on and it’s looking a bit better, yes? We’re in the enviable position of staying on track for an undefeated season, having kept clean sheets in every game thus far. Okay, but in seriousness, the defense is looking better, especially factoring in the return of Koscielny and Szczesny. Well done to Vito Mannone at Stoke, incidentally. First time he didn’t cock it all up and make it go all pear shaped (I read too many British sites). That said, please return to the bench now, Vito.

We’ve lost two of our three best players for the second year running, except we opted not to wait until deadline day with the shadow of the executioner’s blade hovering above throughout the month of August. “Panic buy” Mikel Arteta has us rethinking how a midfield three can go about its defensive duties with precision tackling in a small form factor as opposed to brute force. Panic purchase Per Mertesacker, accused of being too slow, ponderous and clumsy, has combined with captain Thomas Vermaelen to shut down the opposition goal spree, meaning that to match last year’s total, we’ll need to ship 49 goals in the remaining 36 matches, as opposed to amortizing the lot over 38.

Last weekend, Stoke resumed booing Aaron Ramsey for intentionally inserting his leg in the exact spot where Ryan Shawcross was innocently sliding along with his feet out, breaking Ramsey’s leg all over the hills and valleys of the Brittania pitch in 2010. The ingrate got stretchered off and didn’t think twice about the mess of bone fragments and blood he’d strewn all over the grass.

As for no goals yet this season, it is easy, simplistic and relatively accurate to point to the sale of Robin van Persie. However, Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud each moved closer to “breaking their duck,” “getting off the mark” and/or “opening their Arsenal account.” Insert appropriate Britishism for scoring one’s first goal. Yet you never hear of cherries popped. So prim.

The offense hasn’t yet totally clicked, but regardless the 5’6 Santi Cazorla has shined most gleamingly since season’s start. Imagine how he’ll look when all the pistons are firing. Cazorla in particular seems the best signing we’ve made in more or less forever. Both he and Mikel Arteta, only slightly less close to the ground, dealt with the physicality of Stoke excellently, proving that positioning can indeed be more important than thuggery. The only drawback is that Arteta is so dependable and consistent that we want him in more forward positions, especially if we’re looking to smash ducks.

During his Everton days, Arteta always looked technically gifted and dangerous in the final third, with several goals and excellent assists. Last season with us, he played a more restrained and disciplined role, steady midfield presence distributing forward with passing precision (completion percentage usually 90% or higher).

While the back four looked solid, if not quite ironclad watertight, Arteta may deserve the most credit for our two clean sheets. We’ve hobbled him with regard to goal-scoring possibilities, but with his tactical positioning and determination to win the ball–four interceptions against Sunderland, three against Stoke–his lack of imposing physical dominance is overcome by his smart play and well-timed challenges, he’s proving a better defensive midfielder than Song. It would be terrific if Diaby could be doing that, though, in order to free Arteta for his ball distribution talents and linkup with Cazorla. Seeing them together makes you wonder how much better we would have fared with Fabregas and Arteta together, or perhaps Fabregas and Xabi Alonso a few years earlier. Alas, roads not taken, lives not lived.

Abou Diaby killed the momentum at times, not least of which at the edge of the 6-yard box where he spurned the opportunity for a match winner. His performance reminded fans that he’s not (always) a bad player when actually playing, and two games on the trot for a man with his injury record is promising. I write this tentatively and with fingers quintuple crossed. (Single-finger typing.)

Both fullbacks did well, largely due to good cover from Arteta. Carl Jenkinson will need to continue to do so until Bacary Sagna’s fit again, barring a late transfer on that front. On the left, Kieran Gibbs has done well to solidify his place in front of that cuddly Brazilian jokester with a penchant for high-speed chases.

The team is slowly coming together. Giroud looked robust and every bit his reported 6’4 as he repelled the dirty tactics and refused to get pushed around Stoke, which was excellent to see. He looked generally much more in his element than in the opening day match against Sunderland. Podolski nearly decimated his duck, etc., until a short-range shot got blocked by a handy Stoke arm. Penalty award denied.

Giroud will score, and once he does, he’ll continue the trend. It took Thierry Henry nine games before he first scored, and things seemed to go relatively okay for him in the long run. Giroud came within inches of sailing a wonder strike over Begovic’s head and into goal from 40 yards, which would have been insane. You could point out that passing to Ramsey would have been the better choice, but that seems a bit churlish.

Despite two underwhelming 0-0 draws, a point at Stoke is not a bad result. The same can’t be said for Sunderland. Ultimately, Arsenal has two points. One could also look at it as four points dropped against mid table teams, but again, churlish.

As for the fates of Gervinho, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Theo Walcott, if Podolski locks down his spot on the left wing with Giroud central, Gervinho and Walcott will probably battle for the wide right, with the Ox more likely in the central midfield, which Wenger has previously specified as his ultimate destination. This creates a rich midfield choice of Cazorla, Arteta, Ramsey, Diaby, and Wilshere and Tomas Rosicky when again fit, as well as former academy kids Coquelin, Frimpong and potentially Yennaris, unless he’s slotted for fullback cover. Sahin might have added yet more, but such was not to be.

Which brings us to a meditation on the misleading “Liverpool beat Arsenal to Sahin” headlines. We were in pole position and we elected to not take him on loan, given his wage demands (£120,000 a week), the couple million loan fee and non-option to buy at the end of the season. Liverpool conceded on every demand and landed the player. They pay a heavy price for the ability to make him a better player for Real Madrid, at the expense of blocking in-team personnel or directing those funds on a new player who’s actually theirs. If Liverpool had succeeded in getting him for the terms we were after, that would be like for like. They did not. In reality, he chose Real Madrid over Arsenal, as would just about any player. Sahin is a great player and will improve Liverpool, no doubt. They are paying a not inconsiderable price for one season of his services, however.

After the post-match handshake Tony Pulis jogged across the pitch with a shit-eating grin on his face, clearly pleased with whatever he’d said to Wenger. He claims in the media that he is powerless to stop Stoke fans from booing Ramsey, yet he has never tried. He constantly talks about how hard it was for the player—Ryan Shawcross, not Ramsey—and praises Shawcross’ bravery in soldiering on (uninjured). While Ramsey lay in bed for a year, Shawcross drew a line under the (for him) difficult incident. Pulis rewarded him with the captainship for this bravery.

The match Sunday could be great. Let’s hope that it is, to the tune of a goal bonanza. In our favor, to clarify.

Commentary England transfers

Late-Breaking Walcott Defection

August 29, 2012 — by Rob Kirby

For my first Arsenal match in August 2006, covered in the 10 am yell spit and spilled beers of fellow patrons at Nevada Smith’s in New York, I saw Robin van Persie and Theo Walcott come on as subs after Thierry Henry had done something or other phenomenal. My buddy Roland, who deserves all the blame for me being a Gunner, had filled me in on the Walcott World Cup call up fiasco and considered van Persie his favorite player. I was intrigued to see RvP play, and he pulled off an incredible shot on goal within minutes. Walcott did not. But then, he was still 16 at the time.

Van Persie now seems as if he’s been off for ages, though it’s only been a couple weeks and we will face him domestically for seasons to come. Alex Song’s deal transpired in seemingly days, though the recriminations linger on from his camp. And now 48 hours before the transfer deadline, Walcott looks to be off as well, unless he gets a substantial pay packet increase. We’ve offered a deal worth £75,000 a week, he’s currently on £60,000 a week, and he wants £100,000 a week. Arsenal do not believe he yet merits 100K, relative to the levels he has so far achieved (or failed to achieve) at the club in 222 first team appearances. We’ve got 48 hours to decide. If he doesn’t sign for us or someone else before the close of the transfer window, he leaves for free in June. We paid close to £10 million in 2006. Zero compensation doesn’t sit well with the accountants and 48 hours is neither much time to arrange a deal nor much time to arrange for a suitable replacement.

Walcott has shown “consistency in patches” (his words) and flashes of genius. Rare, yes, ephemeral, but still. The pain in the ass about the Theo contract non-extension is that no one would be broken up about the current version of the player leaving. He can sprint but otherwise he has a limited number of actual soccer-related tricks up his sleeve. Primarily the exit fear comes from the possibility that he’ll finally achieve his true potential in a different uniform. But currently, no, he doesn’t deserve what he’s demanding. He hopes to earn the highest wages at the club. It looks as if he won’t. But will we get an acceptable bid with next to no time remaining? Not looking promising, you’d have to say. Clearly, the timing of the refusal was engineered for Theo’s benefit alone. He will almost certainly leave and Arsenal will almost certainly get short-changed in the rush deal. At least RvP pitched his fake-pally public fit with enough time to deal with it.

This month, we’ve lost two of our best players to Manchester United and Barcelona, respectively. That makes two summers in a row, after two of the three best exited for Manchester City and Barcelona, respectively, last year. (We also sold Gaël Clichy to Manchester City, but no big deal there, since end-product-wise he mainly channeled ex-Gunner Alex Hleb, except Hleb could put in a better cross.) The summer before that, our for-one-season-only top scorer Emmanuel Adebayor pimped himself out to City. The summer before that, the stalwart (and alone of them all, non-money-grubbing) centerback Kolo Toure got free of William Gallas by heading to City. And before that, our all-time leading scorer Thierry Henry floated over to Barcelona. But at least we later suckered Barcelona with Hleb. Ha-ha.

When we want to see former players, whether in away fixtures or simply for social calls, luckily we can just visit two principal cities. Manchester and Barcelona. Early reports peg Walcott for City, naturally, since they’ve got more than enough money, despite the fact that they’ve got far better personnel in his position. But that, as they say, is not our problem. Perhaps someone just forgot to update the Arsenal to City multiple-use media template. The other main mooted destination, Liverpool, makes more sense, because their wingers need help. Chelsea’s name pops up, as well, but that seems unlikely. Why would they downgrade? Hazard, Oscar, Mata and … the headless sprinting chicken. But a clean-cut, very marketable because English-born, speedy headless chicken.

We can either go with the hysteria cue or take a more measured approach. Let’s do the latter.

In the past 14 months, we’ve lost two world class players, Robin van Persie and Cesc Fabregas. The next level down, Samir Nasri. Another level down, Alex Song. Level down again, Walcott and Clichy.

In the meantime, we’ve strengthened with Santi Cazorla, who’s definitely world class. Next level down, Lukas Podolski, Olivier Giroud and Mikel Arteta. We’ve brought in future bright lights in Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and possibly Ryo Miyaichi. Andre Santos, Per Mertesacker and Gervinho can each put in a solid shift on their day. And from the academy, Ignasi Miquel, Francis Coquelin, Nico Yennaris and Emmanuel Frimpong. Meanwhile, Kieran Gibbs is at least as good as Clichy, whose main strength was resistance to injury, so perhaps we’re even there. And one day, our young savior Jack Wilshere may reenter the mix matrix.

Much could happen in the next 48 hours, even though reinforcements may not be forthcoming. At the very least, one would hope the “exodus” will include the dead weight we’ve been trying to unload all summer: Nicklas Bendtner, Park Ju Yung, Marouane Chamakh, Andrey Arshavin, Denilson and so on.

Back to Theo. He has long divided opinion, but the contract rejection couldn’t come at a worse time, not least from an “Arsenal are a selling club” PR point of view. To avoid losing him on a free, we have a grand total of two days to move him on before the close of the transfer window. Deja vu in everyday life can sometimes be interesting, but in Arsenal transfer dealings it’s a horrible, horrible thing.

England Preview transfers

New Arsenal Attack for 2012/2013

August 16, 2012 — by Rob Kirby — 2

If you’ve hardly seen Arsenal’s new signings in action, let alone live up to the hype on a frequent basis, you may be at high risk for getting carried away. But you’re excited, because they’re names you recognize, they’re each coming off great seasons, stats-wise, and your best player has just signed for Manchester United, so you really need this right now. Speaking for myself, I’ve really only seen these guys in highlights clips or in international tournaments since 2006. One 90-minute preseason match against FC Cologne dominates perception of how these players fit, because it represents the sum total of captured footage of the new signings together in action. From this background of minimal familiarity with our new saviors comes this perspective.

Robin has finally made his move, so we can now focus on players who are actually on the team. The new players have had one collective preseason runout with the rest of the team against Lukas Podolski’s previous club. Of the three new signings, I’m most familiar with Podolski, who I think more or less rules. Left winger and central striker; adaptable, ball aware and experienced. The brace on Sunday against Cologne reinforced that belief. And for this season’s annual Ligue Un signing, Arsene seemingly has done us right by landing tall central striker Olivier Giroud, who did Montellier right last season with 31 goals and a fairytale surprise league title. Third, Wenger singled out a man now destined for years of Fabregas comparisons. Newest signing Santi Cazorla could conceivably become the best player on the Arsenal squad. (Overhype alert.) Soon, even, which would prove to be fortuitous timing. But if you’ve seen only the occasional Malaga or Villareal match, it’s hard to shout “oil!” with much certainty.

Then there’s the nagging voice of sensible caution talking about adjustment to the league, complete with level-headed exhortations to manage expectations. But inevitably you find yourself incapable of resisting the hope, which then fuels the slackjaw mentality that leads one to temptation and hope and hype get unwisely intertwined.

The preseason match against Cologne best showed the new look of the attack. Van Persie played a nominal 20-minute stint, which didn’t serve much purpose beyond proving, albeit briefly, that he was still an Arsenal player. Only Podolski played more than 45 minutes, so match fitness teamwide remains uncertain. That issue aside, Podolski and Giroud look guaranteed starters once they’ve been eased into the Premier League. Wenger has said they won’t start the first match of the campaign. We’ll see. They just played a match this week. At any rate, hopefully they can integrate into the team well and soon.

Cazorla looks set to orchestrate from the middle, rather than take Theo’s place on the right wing, where Cazorla has often played. Good for us he’s got skills in the fulcrum, and a spot of luck for Theo. Ramsey’s not fully right for the job yet, and Wilshere and Rosicky are out injured. When everyone’s fit, there may be selection problems, but for now Cazorla is arriving much in an hour of need. For me, he’s the most exciting signing of the summer not because he’s one of most exciting new players in the Premier League but because from his billing he’s the player we need, the missing creativity and striker service from the middle, the cornerstone of the outfit whose last incarnation relocated to Catalonia about a year ago. If the real Arsenal Cazorla emulates the imagined Arsenal Cazorla, we may finally have restored the team to a fast, fluid side with a multi-headed attack. No pressure.

At the risk of overhyping and forgetting to wait to see how their performance actually defines our current state of the squad, things look a lot less negative than you’d have thought considering the vivid post-van Persie Apocalypse nightmares of recent times. Maybe that still hinges on Barca’s interest in Alex Song a bit, though.

Particularly given the limited time playing with one another, Podolski, Giroud and Cazorla clicked with remarkable ease in the preseason over Cologne. As each new signing played his first match in the Arsenal shirt. Giroud pulled defenders away from other attackers and Podolski scored a brace, with Cazorla delivering the corner that led to Vermaelen’s header.

Gervinho continued his good run of form in the preseason matches, confusing opponents with his unorthodox jerky dribbles and runs. He scored the fourth of the four goals against Cologne and with vP gone, Gervinho certainly has a better shot at getting in the starting team. Perhaps in his second season he’ll have this whole Premier League thing figured out. As long as we don’t ask him to do any penalty shootouts ever, we could soon see the best of the Ivorian body twitcher. He often just holds onto the ball just one second too long. Decide to pass or shoot sooner, and he could get a few goals and assists this season.

The final preseason runout showed a prototype of a possible Arsenal Attack Plan A. Perhaps conceived as a Plan B if van Persie stayed, the formation rapidly upgraded to A status when the Dutch escape artist made it clear he didn’t want to be in the plans.

Having lost one player we definitely wanted to keep, we have another whom Barcelona would like to poach, Alex Song. He was one of our best players last season, justifying Wenger’s once-confounding belief in the player. And now he could be off to the familiar bidding terrain of Barcelona. And if anyone had forgotten, Theo Walcott has only one year on his contract and presumably wants more of whatever he can get. He’s already on more than he deserves, but the possibility always exists that he’ll master the finisher role and weld it to his cheetah speed, and you’d like to be the one holding his contract if he ever puts it all together.

This was not the expected clear out. Carlos Vela has completed his switch to Real Sociedad, but with the other wantaways, supply seems out of sync with demand. Nicklas Bendtner wants to leave but has yet to see the right red carpet, Andrey Arshavin wants to play again, by running less, if at all possible. Squillaci, Park and Chamakh consider the prospect of actually playing quite novel and appealing, even if it does involve running.

As for the departure crew, futures remain firmly, precariously up in the air. We want them to go, and quickly, but we’re probably losing a couple that’ll turn good eventually. For all his arrogance-you-love-to-hate, Bendtner may one day live up to half of his self-hype. In Bendtner we lose a pretty good striker that just didn’t really work within the team. For the past couple years, aside mostly from performances for Denmark, he hasn’t produced. He may really earn the decentest-striker-ever tag, but not at Arsenal and for now, his shoving off works best for everyone. He’s better than the other hopefully departing strikers, but that probably says more about them than about Bendtner.

Andrey Arshavin yet has some goals and assists in him, but it looks like it’ll have to materialize elsewhere. You still harbor belief he could conjure an out-of-nowhere flash of genius at any moment, but the rest of the time he contributes hardly anything, least of which with regard to defensive cover. Who knows how much it weighs on him to confront the idea of losing the Russia captaincy. Capello picked him this most recent international friendly days before the season start, but it remains a question mark nonetheless. He did pretty well at the Euros but he’s also being held to blame for Russia failing to get past the group stage. He has still got the ability, but under a new-look Arsenal, he looks like the odd man out. The sooner it gets sorted, the better.

Chamakh, Park, Squillaci–there’s no debate, the only question is how to offload them int the most expedient manner. They would probably have to take pay cuts. We may get hardly anything for transfer fee. But considering the 25-man rule, they are dead weight, so “get off our books, you ne’er-do-wells!” On the re-loan side, Denilson spends his last Arsenal season on another loan to Sao Paulo. We seem to unable to give these dudes away. With the Brazilian, we’re probably still on the hook for a chunk of his current wages.

It will/would be sad to see Alex Song go, and the possibility is not seeming particularly remote. He was definitely not on the “ship out” list, but Barcelona exerts a dream-team magnetism to which better men than he have succumbed. Nominally a defensive midfielder, he pulled out some incredible assists for van Persie last season in clutch situations and provided a creative spark at key moments. On the downside, he is way too slow in tracking back and he subscribes far too much to the Hollywood pass. Hopefully Barcelona can be repelled this time around. He’s got three seasons left on his contract and he will be useful in the season ahead. Also, we’d definitely need a ready replacement, which one would hope Wenger’s tracking in the transfer market. Possibly that’s the explanation for the Nuri Sahin loan/lease-to-buy talks with Real Madrid. But Sahin is more of a creative midfielder than defensive general.

If Song leaves, you’d have to see it as another stab in Wenger’s back with regard to his youth project visions, fresh off the double Fabregas and Nasri knife plunges of last season, but that’s how it goes. Of principal importance, who will take charge of the defensive midfielder position? Francis Coquelin? It would be a huge step up, but one he may be able to make. Emmanuel Frimpong is injured, aside from lacking readiness to take that role full time, anyway. Wilshere, same. Perhaps there’s a pipe dream that Diaby could hold down the position and manage to enforce without getting enforced upon. That in mind, hopefully someone’s on the case.

Walcott’s stalling for whatever reason, whether for more money or some longer-for transfer. Walcott divides opinions. Within a game, even. He’s fantastic for a stretch before repeatedly running the ball out. Admittedly, the boy did hook up van Persie with some good assists. Walcott self-admits, in a manner meant to emphasize the positive, that he’s “consistent in patches.” Arsenal fans see him pull off some great moves, then follow it up with abysmal all around play. He’s either a great player about to explode, or he has already reached his peak, meaning he shouldn’t necessarily play the transfer threat card too brazenly. The top teams that can pay high wages and have Champions League this season have better right wingers than Walcott. Would they pay for him to be on the bench? Would he happily accept the bench for higher earnings? We’ll know before long.

For another from the comparatively old guard, Johann Djourou understandably doesn’t love being mired in fourth-place certerback. Arsenal fans pray he never gets drafted to rightback ever again, but I hope he stays as a backup centerback. For whatever reason, we’ve been repeatedly driven to rely on third and fourth centerbacks in recent seasons, so we want good, experienced cover. Two seasons ago, he rose to the task. Last season, he didn’t blow any minds (in a good way, at least), but he can still probably do the job for Arsenal if called upon in his natural position. As fourth choice centerbacks go, Djourou can more than hold his own. It’s not his fault all the right and left backs went out injured last winter.

While the forwardmost element of attack is all-new, the defense moves into its second full season together. Per Mertesacker has proponents and detractors, but until his injury he put in a good shift. Vermaelen returned from the wilds of the medic zone, Andre Santos and Kieran Gibbs offer different strengths in the marauding leftback role, Koscielny made his sophomore season a breakout one, as did Wojciech Szczesny, who can improve even more this season with better decision making. Jenkinson is the rawest, but he can put in a damn precise cross when he’s downfield, so that’s better than nothing, certainly. He looks able to improve, but we won’t be fully solid until Sagna resumes at right back.

The current defense, with the current personnel, can sort it out and make it work. With a starting four of Gibbs, Vermaelen, Koscielny and Sagna (Jenkinson if Sagna’s leg is still in rehab mode), they could enforce a real defensive solidly at the back even by just cutting out some of the rookie mistakes. Szczesny is still learning, but he’s the man in goal and he instills confidence. Granted he makes mistakes, not least at Euro 2012, but he pulled off many crucial, excellent saves during the most horrendous parts of last season: the abysmal beginning, the bleak month of fullbackless January, the end of season inability to kill off the race for third, through the firestorm periods, Szczesny held it together when the defense repeatedly collapsed around him.

As for betting the on farm on any one prediction of where we end up in the table? No idea. Manchester United has re-lethalized. Manchester City the Bionic Superteam probably has a big buy or two in them, Chelsea have snapped up some players with deafening buzz, Tottenham have kept Bale, may keep Modric, or may suddenly have the money to buy £30 million in a few new players. And Arsenal rebuilds from the loss of captain/previous go-to and look to make it work with possibly all three new starters from the off, although a promising three. The team could go any direction. If the team gels quickly, we’re looking at a bright future. If the attack doesn’t click in the early matches, or if the defense turns out to be the bugaboo, we could be looking at a grim opening to the season. How grim, may we never know.

Sunderland at home. Stoke away, which usually turns out poorly for us. Ramsey could elaborate. Then Liverpool at Anfield, Southhampton at home, first Champions league match, and Manchester City in Manchester not long after. The game in Germany helped make sense of the new side with time running out but friendlies are just warm-up games. But with the whole squad finally (possibly) operational again, we could make a strong first push right from the gates. Or totally mediocre. Or one that makes us long for the days of 8-2. We’ll see how it pans out. Except hopefully the first scenario.

Arsenal travel to Sunderland on Saturday. We have to power to cause Martin O’Neill to go apoplectic as his team gets pummeled on the scoreboard. To go with a prediction, I may live to regret, I definitely see Podolski and Giroud to each get 15 goals this season. Walcott and Gervinho, either side of the 10 mark. Cazorla, Arteta and Vermaelen will each contribute, and hopefully Ramsey, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Wilshere can get in on the action. Van Persie’s goals can be replaced.

May Arsenal finally win a trophy this year. The words “nothing since 2005” need never be spoken again. Cazorla in particular seems like he could really get Arsenal firing again. Losing Cesc was brutal is that regard. Nasri, even.

Right wing is the big question mark, even with Cazorla in the middle. When Walcott’s not fending off Oxlade-Chamberlain, and maybe Gervinho, he’ll need to forge a new working relationship with the target men. If he can learn to cross to Giroud’s head with any sort of consistent, he could lock up the position as his. And maybe Chamberlain will play in the middle more often, playing alongside Cazorla, Arteta and Song. Hopefully, Wilshere and Rosicky will heal and rejoin that pool of midfield options soon.

Mikel Arteta sat out the friendly in Germany because of knock picked up in training. Oxlade-Chamberlain exited the Cologne stadium with an ankle injury that has ruled him out of this week’s strangely timed international friendly. Laurent Koscielny also has withdrawn from the France squad with a calf problem. Wilshere, Rosicky and the medics will have some company in the short term. (But perhaps never again van Persie. If Robin writes a book one day, hopefully a few at least from the medical staff will land in the acknowledgments.) Abou Diaby seems to have survived his runout against Cologne, which is tentatively positive. Having pulled out of England training with a bruised thigh, one would think Walcott would still get picked for the Sunderland match on Saturday.

May Diaby have a remarkable fitness run, with the least injured season of all time. May Cesc consider returning and inaugurate a new tradition of attracting the best players from Barcelona and Manchester City for dirt-cheap prices. May weeks and weeks of incredible Arsenal victories await, each better than the last until you almost wish the team wouldn’t humiliate the opponents so much, but figure “end of the season, goal difference may carry the day…” and then it never need come down to goal difference. Our play being so vastly superior and all.

Farewell to van Persie. He made his move, and while the move may be distasteful, he played amazingly the last season and a half, and when possible during the injured periods. Thanks to him, we had Champions League soccer with which to attract a new strikeforce. In the total drag of his departure, we remain a team in contention for another season yet. Let’s see how far we can take it.

Commentary England Euro 2012 Europe Germany Photography transfers

Giroud Joins Arsenal, Ditches Nasri in Polkraine

June 27, 2012 — by Rob Kirby

All non-German Arsenal players exited the Euro 2012 tournament at the quarters, so no more Tomáš Rosický, no more Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Theo Walcott or even new signing Olivier Giroud, the 6’3 striker who scored the most goals in the Ligue 1 with Montpellier this past season. Giroud knows what it feels like to win titles and scores goals. The experience can only contribute promisingly to the operations of the club. Hopefully Giroud beds easily into the team and may his explosiveness out of the gate be everything one could hope for in the world of combustability. State of the Union: Arsenal, Polkraine 1 and Polkraine 2: Electric Vindaloo, we will miss you, but it’s hard to Arsenal it up properly Polkrainically with the spine of the team now largely absent.

Not to forget, of course, the first big new signing of the summer, Lukas Podolski, who quietly roars into the semis after he and Per Mertesacker quietly sat behaving themselves on the bench against Greece. Considering Rosický did something distinctly not good to his Achilles region and Walcott’s never-100% hamstring is again sub-100, one can appreciate Joachim Loew giving the guys whatever breathers they need. Mertesacker must be itching to get some time on the field, but that’s a different matter entirely.

Increasingly it looks like Germany/Spain in the finals and we’ll either see two newer players (Per and Poldi) lifting the trophy, or perhaps our former captain (good for him) and the main principals of the “Barca DNA” mafia (very bad people). I prefer Germany, and not just because it’s trendy right now to knock Spain’s Barcelona-based style of play. I grant either team permission to win the trophy, as long as the winning team goes fully at it and makes the event into a great final. Or Portugal. A Germany/Portugal matchup could be interesting. Oh right, we saw that already. It ends 1-0 to Germany, and Ronaldo does nothing of interest.

At the very least, please no Spain/Holland World Cup 2010 extra time action, unless it’s scoreless only until extra time where both teams drop the act and go batshit-crazy-nuts, racking up dozens of perfect downfield passes and goal after goal after goal. Or even just one mythic goal, but one that lends itself to a dozen interesting different camera angles. You get the full feel for how the goal action went down in incrementally more comprehensive views, even though it was just the one photogenic ball that crossed the goalpost plane. 12 different replay-as-new-play camera angles make for a 12-goal video replay frenzy.

In other, self-aggrandizing news, Nicklas Bendtner’s agent claims he’s attracting interest from major global clubs, so that’s clearly a done deal. I mean, he’s the agent. Meanwhile, Sebastien Squillaci reportedly is bound for Ligue 1, and we might be offloading Carlos Vela and Denilson to teams in La Liga. Overoptimistically, unwisely assuming all those go through, Johann Djourou and Andrey Arshavin both want new career moves, as well. First it looked like Arshavin to Zenit St. Petersburg, then he pissed everyone off by saying it was the Russian public’s fault for unrealistic expectations of Russia getting further than they did, or doing more in the match time they had. Then he apologized. So, maybe a Russian deal could still work, but apparently the Arshavins dig living in London, for what it’s worth. Where does that leave the man, then? QPR? West Ham? Fulham? Drop down a level and start raking in the bucks and that shimmery Crystal Palace adulation? As for Djourou, a mooted move to Turkey for the Swiss defender has popped up occasionally in the news.

The Robin van Persie issue remains as uncertain and unresolved as ever, but the new signings represent on the one hand a direction out of the wastelands if Robin leaves, and on the other, our ambition to push forward, theoretically what Robin’s been waiting for. Either way, Robin will seek fame and fortune elsewhere or he’ll seek fame and fortune with Arsenal. It should be decided before long. That will in turn trigger activity on the Walcott front. If anything positive came out of the shambles of last year’s summer transfer market, the transfer activity thus far this summer has shown a fundamental difference in intention from the club.

What of the fates of Marouane Chamakh, Park Ju-Yung and wantaway Lukasz Fabianski? Diaby? Gervinho? Considering Diaby’s once again out injured, it doesn’t seem like too many clubs will be banging down that particular door. And one would think Gervinho still has a year to make it with the side, despite starting berths on the left hand side of attack drastically shrinking in availability lately. Podolski would seem the natural starter for the left, with Robin and/or Olivier Giroud in front (or Robin dropping back into the hole) and Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain duking it out for wide right. Gervinho will need a hefty and timely dose of good form to force his way into the starting XI. Fortunately for the Ivorian, he always seems like he’s just one skill away from really making it work with his jerky cutback style. He’s got goals in him, somewhere. Maybe he’ll find new ways of impressing as an impact sub, who knows.

Hopefully, long term injuries to Bacary Sagna and Jack Wilshere will heal apace, as will last-season injuries to Emmanuel Frimpong and Francis Coquelin. Hopefully Rosický and Walcott soon recover from what seem shorter term injuries contracted from the Euros. And hopefully Mertesacker and Podolski continue to get into prime shape for the tournament’s finale, in which they combine for an astounding all-Arsenal goal to wipe the floor with Barca DNA.

Walcott returns from a good showing at Euro 2012, so presumably there will be another contract offer. Of course, Walcott may decide to not sign and kick off a delightfully neverending last-year-in-contract story for the next installment of news-overexposure hell. And Alex Song’s contract is winding down, too, so that too should provide some fun times. Oxlade-Chamberlain returns to a pay increase of 300%, which takes him up to £45,000 a week. For comparison, “flop” players Diaby, Denilson, Chamakh, Fabianski, Djourou, Arshavin, Vela, Bendtner, et al make more than that at this very moment, so it’s hard to say the Ox-Cham hasn’t earned it.

Anyhow, that’s all.

Enjoy the semis this week.

Commentary England Euro 2012 Europe Photography

Polkraine 2 (or, Arsenal Quarters Vindaloo)

June 21, 2012 — by Rob Kirby — 1

Arsenal captain Robin van Persie, Andrey Arshavin, Wojciech Szczesny and Nicklas Bendtner have all exited Euro 2012. Well, there goes that tournament…

But among those soldiering on in the competition, building upon performances covered in the first installment of the venerable State of the Union: Arsenal, Polkraine, four still remain (five did until today, of which more right now).

Czech Republic captain Tomas Rosicky sat out the quarterfinals against Portugal and will not return at a later stage as hoped, as his countrymen did not prevail and his Achilles issue did not heal in time. The unfit Rosicky kept the fit contingent of the team company on the bench today, having returned from returning to Prague for treatment after the second Group A match against Greece, to no avail. He had not not trained since going off injured in that match and given his team’s exit today now targets recovery for the first team come August.

Lukas Podolski (most likely starting) and Per Mertesacker (most likely benching it) tackle Greece on Friday and will in all likelihood power on through to the semi-finals. Podolski scored a solid goal against the Danish in the final group stage match, taking his international tally to 44 in 100 international appearances, which is really pretty impressive. Long may the goal record run.

On the French side of things, France centerback Philippe Mexes picked up a second yellow, so Koscielny may finally start against Spain in the quarterfinals on Saturday (lucky him!). Difficult opponents to line up against, the Spanish midfielder forwards will definitely test but not necessarily overwhelm the Arsenal player many thought should have been picked ahead of Mexes and Rami anyway.

Lastly, on Sunday England prevailed 1-0 against the Ukraine, playing a well-disciplined defense against a surprisingly entertaining Ukrainian side. The match lacked any real tangible impact from substitutes Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, but the Rooney-reunited team won their group, and in so doing escaped the Spanish in the draw, throwing the French to Euro 2008 and World Cup 2010 defending champions instead. Next up, Italy.

For England, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Walcott impressed in the group stages overall, if not the final match in particular. Italy could present an interesting matchup for the young Englanders and their elders in the final quarterfinal. Congratulations to the two of them for the progressing, though, and may neither of the pair empulverize himself in the upcoming fixture against notoriously fair-play Italy.

To revisit the Euro 21012 departure personnel:

Van Persie’s heading up of the early exits is for most the most eyebrow-raising, particularly for those able to single-eyebrow-raise and who thought van Persie and the Dutch would not only emerge from the group of death but also make it to the semi-finals or even further. Robin travels homeward, or perhaps vacationward, and soon must definitively resolve the Arsenal contract issue. More and more I feel he should go if he really can’t commit to the team for two years. Pay him a market wage for someone who just won Player of the Year, most definitely. Promise him additional signings to inject the team with commensurate quality and actually do it. But if after the money waving and promise making and subtle allusions to loyalty during those many weeks and years on the Emirates physio tables, if it’s not enough it’s not enough. And if so, we need to address the remainder of the transfer window as such. The signing of Podolski and the links with Olivier Giroud and Yann M’Vila are a good start, regardless of the fact that neither of the two French links are by any means a lock (especially in the latter case, which was seemingly a lock at the end of the season).

Van Persie had a somewhat disappointing three matches, missing many opportunities, although he did get in a good wrong-leg right-footed strike against Germany that deserves props. Some argue that two defensive midfielders wasn’t the positive play for the Holland team, some point to the early stage omissions of Klaus-Jann Huntelaar and Rafael van der Vaart, but at the end of the day, the best Arsenal player and biggest Arsenal question mark comes back the non-Euro 2012 world with many questions unanswered and hopefully soon decides to definitely choose to stay or go, with particular regard to the matter of stay or leaving. Whatever it is, the sooner settled, the better.

Arshavin put in a good showing at the tournament, meaning that we may be seeing the last of Andrey, in an effort to give the already reluctant Arsenal player a way out that’s mutually beneficial. Glad for him that he’s turning his fortunes around. Some reports say he may prefer another England team to his recent successful homecoming at Zenit St. Petersburg. So be it. So long as someone pays a decent amount of money to take over his contract and the associated high wages, all good.

Szczesny had a tournament he’d probably rather forget. Playing in his home nation, he got red carded in match 1, which gave a penalty away against Greece. He watched his replacement block the penalty, to his relief, but Poland’s playing of 10 men against 11 certainly didn’t help the Poland team in the bid to get more than a point that day, when three would have set them in good stead in a winnable group in front of a home crowd. He did not make it into the side for the final match against the Czechs, but thankfully no injuries came to the goalie and his ego seems tough enough to absorb the moment and learn from it.

To help secure Spain’s spot in the quarterfinals, former captain Cesc Fabregas got a great downfield pass from Xavi that he looped over a defender’s head to Andres Iniesta who squared to Jesus Navas, who then preschooled it up with smash-in exuberance in Spain’s 1-0 victory over Croatia. Would that the Catalan midfielder was still with the London team. Onward and upward, though, I guess. Apparently, Cesc and Eduardo exchanged shirts after the match. The good old days…

On the transfer horizon front, the continuance of the French side in the competition after their toothless 2-0 loss to Sweden in the final group stage match means that we can perhaps see more and better from long-running targets M’Vila and Giroud in the tournament—against Spain, no less. Not being much of a Ligue 1 follower, I have only seen them in a few performances, so it’ll be interesting to see what they do against Spain.

And last of all the yokels, Nicklas Bendtner. The car-crashing egomaniac Bendtner is a good striker—better than Chamakh, definitely–but he doesn’t want to be an Arsenal player, so that sort of mandates he move on, because he’s not worth the prima donna business. Credit to him, though, that he’s whipped the media into a Bendtnerian frenzy and further publicized his already well-publicized wantaway status. The forward is doing his absolute best to attract more attention, and it’s a skill he knows well. The Paddy Power “lucky underwear” stunt earned him a fine of €100,000, as well as a one competitive match ban, but it also made him the talk of the town and tabloids, which is how Bendtner always expected his life to be, anyway. Any any rate, the soccer betting site swiftly announced they’d pay his fine, after having tweeted a picture minutes after the moment transpired of Bendtner lowering his shorts and raising his jersey to reveal the Paddy Power waistband. Bizarre. But crafty.

As demonstrated in the fine structure outlined in the following, one wonders about the purpose of the UEFA:

€20,000 Porto in Feb 2012, for racial abuse and monkey hoots from fans against visiting players
€40,000 Arsene Wenger in March 2012, for berating the official in the tunnel
€100,000 Nicklas Bendtner, this week, guerilla marketing underwear betting company advertising stunt/”lucky underwear”

Bendtner drew the worst fine. Go figure. He did it intentionally, fair enough, and assuming his defense that they were simply his “lucky underwear” fails to exonerate him in the UEFA kangaroo court, the decision stands.

The rest of the tournament still holds a possibility of a readjustment of UEFA’s policies. Unless they’re utterly out of touch with the people side of European soccer—their constituents, as it were—they will hopefully get back to a more balaced ratio of crime and punishment. If you go hard, go hard. Just be consistent. UEFA doesn’t have to be a leading beacon in human rights, but the easy-to-implement measures of equal payout really aren’t that tough. First fix the €20,000 Porto precedent. Make any incidents currently under review somewhere, anywhere, more in line and along the lines of the Bendtner fine.

For updated reference, in fairness, UEFA has just fined the Croatia FA €80,000 for racist chants against Mario Balotelli in the Croatia/Italy match in Group C. Again Balotelli, of “Why always me?” t-shirt fame. So many plugs, but back to the point,first Porto in the Europa fixture, now the Euros a half-year late. He’s clearly a flashpoint for frustrated opposition fans, but in a rarely employed comment in context to Balotelli, he’s the injured party not the cause this time.

The sum of €80,000 still conspicuously amounts to less than the Bendtner incident but represents a punishment more in keeping with a monetarily punitive response to racism at Euro 2012. Again the tournament still has legs and UEFA may likely have another opportunity to demonstrate their stance to punishing improper conduct, so we’ll see what happens. At this point, news outlets have covered it to death. The next weeks should clarify how UEFA plans to handle racism policywide, let alone at its own biggest sponsored event. Certainly on the face of it, the situation smacks of an organization that sees racism as a softer crime than unsanctioned marketing and has done a poor job of handling the controversy in a better way. Bendtner is an idiot—a €100,000 fine seems fine to me. He had to know that he was going to get busted. But as for UEFA, hopefully they will set a more appropriate benchmark for meting of fines when the time comes, which doesn’t seem long off, sadly.

Changing gears to a speed more transfer-minded, France’s prolonged participation in the tournament prolongs the viewing of possible future Arsenal players but delays any actual dealmaking with them. As is the nature of the game, every kickass thing one of the target Gallic “possibles” does confirms the suspicions of goodness, if not greatness, but inherently inflates the price, causing a whole new benefit-risk Arsene self-sitdown.

So for expediency’s sake, maybe they could just put in a solid, semi-emphatic performance, but not one that causes the future to turn out outrageously expensive. In other words, validate with entertainment the valuable time spent watching, but ensure the results that best behoove Arsenal. Which then greenlights the general influx of solid players and creates a comfortable signing environment for the talented new-signing folks.

Meanwhile, the Import/Export player development department officials look to pull some entrepreneurial stunts and focus on the other main task at hand. Namely, how best to offload Vela, Bendtner, Chamakh, Park, Denilson, Djourou, Fabianski and Squillaci, while throughout plays the perennial soap opera medical story line of Abou Diaby. Call It a Day, or Long Shot Bet That Broken Sucker’ll Come Crushingly Good—The Diaby/Wenger Story. Hopefully the book publishes in a market where long titles are in vogue.

But back to actual Euro 2012 reality, the German crew seems to have the best shot at progessing to the semis and beyond. If Podolski and Mertesacker do behold silverware at tournament’s end, may it be the first of many this next twelve months. (The same goes to AOC, Walcott, Rosicky and Koscielny, but let’s be serious here.)

Euro 2012 Preview Schedule

Matchday 9: Group Stage Enters Final Round–Greece-Russia & Czech Republic-Poland Today

June 15, 2012 — by Suman

The last round of group stage matches starts today, with the last two matches in Group A–meaning that we’ll have our first two quarterfinalists by the end of the day. It also means the day’s two matches are played simultaneously. So get your picture-in-picture ready–or put one on your TV and stream the other on your computer. Or better yet, head to your local footy-friendly watering hole–we’ll try to watch at least one of the next few days at our local spot, WoodworkBK.

The match to watch today is Czech Republic-Poland. Poland will be playing in front of a partisan home crowd in Wroclaw, while Czech captain and playmaker (and Gunner) Tomáš Rosický (“the Little Mozart of football”, as we detailed in an extended postscript to this post) is doubtful following an Achilles tendon injury suffered against Greece. So Poland are perhaps the favorites–but they have yet to win a match, and the pressure will be on them. For Poland the focus and onus will again be on the Dortmund trio–attacking right back Łukasz Piszczek, right-sided midfielder (and captain) Jakub (“Kuba”) Błaszczykowski, and striker Robert Lewandowski. In addition, goalkeeper (and another Gunner) Wojciech Szczęsny returns after a one-game suspension for the red card he received in the opening match against Greece.

In the other match, Russia, a team that has impressed, should beat a Greece side that hasn’t. But the Russians have a reputation for losing interest and focus–and remarkably Greece would advance with a win. For Russia the standout performers have been captain Andrei Arshavin (still on Arsenal’s books, but went back to Mother Russia in January on loan to his home club of Zenit St. Petersburg) and youngster Alan Dzagoev–who is, as Eastern European football expert Jonathan Wilson writes today, finally meeting Russia’s expectations.

See below for Group A standings and today’s fixtures (via UEFA.com), and below that a scenario analysis (via wikipedia) of which teams advances in each of the 9 outcomes (3 possible outcomes in each of the 2 matches implies 3^2 = 9 possible outcomes). Although it’s even more complicated than that, as certain of those scenarios bring into play goal differential (the first tie-breaker).

In fact, it appears that not only do all four teams have a chance to advance, but that each of the six 2-team combinations is still a possibility. No wonder betfair.com writes: “I’m not too sure who will be more interested in the final round of group matches in Groups A and B: football fans or mathematicians. To say things are tight is an understatement. To say they’re complicated is a fair statement.”

Group A

Teams	P	W	D	L	F	A	+/-	Pts
Russia	2	1	1	0	5	2	3	4
Czech Republic	2	1	0	1	3	5	-2	3
Poland	2	0	2	0	2	2	0	2
Greece	2	0	1	1	2	3	-1	1

16 June 2012
Group A More »
Greece	20.45	Russia
Referee: Jonas Eriksson (SWE) – Stadium: National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw (POL)
Group A More »
Czech Republic	20.45	Poland
Referee: Craig Thomson (SCO) – Stadium: Municipal Stadium Wroclaw, Wroclaw (POL)

Scenario analysis via UEFA Euro 2012 Group A – Wikipedia:

On the last match day (16 June) the teams advancing from this group (winner; runner-up) will be:^[1]^[2]^[3]

If: Czech Republic win draw Poland win

Greece win Czech Republic; Greece Greece and Russia or Czech Republic¹ Poland; Greece

draw Czech Republic; Russia Russia; Czech Republic Russia and Poland²

Russia win Russia; Czech Republic Russia; Czech Republic Russia; Poland

Positions determined by score of Greece v Russia
(a) Russia; Greece – if Greece win by 1 or 2 goals
(b) Greece; Russia – if Greece win by 3 to 5 goals
(c) Greece; Czech Republic – if Greece win by at least 6 goals

Poland win the group if they win by at least 4 goals (3 if they score at least 4 more than Russia); otherwise Russia win the group

References

^ Peter Katsiris (13 June 2012). “UEFA EURO 2012: The Math behind Group A”. Football Hellas. Retrieved 14 June 2012.

^ “Euro 2012 Diary: Mathematicians to work out who qualifies from Groups A and B”. Betfair. 14 June 2012. Retrieved 14 June 2012.

^ Johnson, Dale (13 June 2012). “Euro 2012 Group permutations”. ESPN. Retrieved 15 June 2012.

Commentary England Euro 2012 Europe Germany Photography

State of the Union: Arsenal, Polkraine

June 15, 2012 — by Rob Kirby — 3

The Arsenal won’t play a competitive match until August, but that’s no reason to cease obsessing and expounding upon the team. With two of our strikers, a few top wingers and midfielders, a couple central defenders and a goalkeeper in Polkraine, we’re fielding a mostly full team. No fit right back or left back, but then that was the month of January. This is familiar territory.

As internationals enter the final round of the group stage matches of Euro 2012 on different teams, some have excelled in Poland and Ukraine, while others hide their heads as they make their way to the exit.

In Group A, Russia captain Andrey Arshavin, Czech Republic captain Tomas Rosicky and Poland first-choice goalie Wojciech Szczesny have been facing off in a tightly competitive, if comparatively weak, group.

Current Zenit St. Petersburg loanee Arshavin has had a great Euro comeback, putting in some of his best performances since Euro 2008, with three assists thus far. Whether it derives from finally playing in his preferred position behind the striker or whether he simply feels happier and more comfortable captaining a side of his countrymen is unknowable, but Russia currently sit atop Group A and look poised to go through to the knockouts. A victory or draw against Greece would seal it, but a late game counterattack from the notoriously difficult, itinerantly attacking Hellenic defense could scupper Russian hopes. Arshavin can help ensure that does not happen. He still has moments of listless apathy, such as the second half against Poland, and would never dream of tracking back, but the mercurial Little Tsar still shows the moments of genius that made Arsenal fans so excited to sign him in January 2009.

Finally fit and in form again after so long, Rosicky unfortunately suffered an Achilles issue in the second match of the group stage and looks out for the count no matter what happens in the final match against Poland. Hopefully he can recover in time for the new season, but few players shake off Achilles problems without long layoffs. But having spent abundant time at adjoining physio tables with fellow rehab regular Thomas Vermaelen, he probably already knows this all too well. Sadly for Tomas, his tournament is likely over.

Wojciech Szczesny got sent off in the opening match of the tournament for a clumsy penalty but returns for the winner-takes-all match against the Czech Republic, in a bid to salvage his rep on home soil and help Poland progress to the quarterfinals, after missing the draw against Russia from suspension. From a purely selfish, club-centric point of view, hopefully he can put in a good showing even if cohost Poland ultimately fails, so that no psychological hangover haunts the big keeper in the Arsenal campaign ahead. Sadly for club and country backup Lukasz Fabianski, even with Szczesny out of the picture an injury keeps him from getting his big moment on the home stage, especially as he actively seeks pastures new and desperately needs the visibility. You can’t help but feel a bit bad for the guy. Until you remember why he got bumped down to number two and get your blood pressure up all over again. And bay wolfishly for his blood.

In the Group B group of death, Arsenal captain Robin van Persie, Arsenal headache Nicklas Bendtner and new signing Lukas Podolski have been facing off, while the recovering Per Mertesacker (ankle) has looked on from his seat on the uncomfortable Teutonic bench.

Nicklas Bendtner, a.k.a. the Great Dane, a.k.a. the best striker in the history of scoring goals, had a mostly anonymous match in the surprise victory over Holland but then clawed and headed Denmark even with Portugal on Wednesday with a handy brace before the Portuguese snatched the crucial late goal. If last year’s Sunderland loanee can put in an impressive shift against Germany in the final match of the group, all while resisting the urge to drop trou for illicit underwear advertising, the ultra-arrogant wantaway forward will have made good use of his time in the shop window. Furthermore, Denmark may just eke through to the knockout stages. But then Lukas, Per and the rest of the German horde won’t make it easy for them, unless Die Mannschaft willingly and shadily go for a draw to shaft the Dutch and ensure their bitter rivals’ exit. Murky sportsmanship terrain. Of course, revisiting the issue of Bendtner and the shop window, buyer beware. His Royal Car Crashingness plays outstandingly well for country (20 goals in 50 appearances), less so for club (22 in 99 league matches).

By contrast, Robin van Persie had been on fire for for both club and country in 2011 and 2012, although new eyes watching the Oranje going into what might be the country’s final match of this Euros could be forgiven for not knowing it. That said, van Persie managed a fantastic right-footed, chocolate-legged consolation goal in the crunch match against Germany, but not enough for the Netherlands to take any points from the encounter. With Holland sitting bottom of the table in the Quartet of Death with zero points, the future doesn’t look especially rosy. Perhaps the national team’s collapse could be Arsenal’s gain, though. In an ideal world, RvP returns to preseason well rested and ready to sign on the dotted line of contract extension. A backlash from the Dutch (and world) media may just make him appreciate the loyalty Arsene Wenger and the club have showed him over his many injury-plagued seasons. One can hope.

Arsenal new boy Podolski has played well for Germany, even if he has not scored. The former Cologne striker has put in excellent performances for Germany the last two World Cups and in the 2008 installment of the Euros, so with Germany unlikely to exit anytime soon, he’s got time. Perhaps he’s just pacing himself. He has scored 43 goals in 99 appearances for Germany, so a betting man would say he’s got goals in him, yet.

National teammate Mertesacker won the fitness race for the bench, but has yet to feature in either of the German victories in the group. As disappointing as benchwarming may be, one must remember he went off at Sunderland with an ankle ligament injury last February, an injury that kept him out for the remainder of the season. The fact that he has not suffered any new niggles or problems in training bodes well for the new season, and the veteran center half may yet have a role to play, as many expect the Germans to go the distance this summer.

Group C features no current Arsenal players–only the ones that got away, like former captain Cesc Fabregas (the hurt, it still hurts so much…) and Eduardo, the awesome but tragically leg-shattered Croazilian.

And in Group D, we’re back in traditional Arsenal territory. The group does, after all, include France (and England). But as opposed to past years where the French contingent drew from an overabundance of Arsenal riches, Laurent Koscielny alone keeps the flames alive for injured compatriots Bacary Sagna (leg) and Abou Diaby (bones on self-destruct)–and only from the bench, at that. Meanwhile, England flanking speedsters Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain pace it up on the English attack, though the elder young’un came on only as a super sub against France.

Oxlade-Chamberlain, in particular, has made huge strides in his adaptation to international competition, especially in his tournament debut against France at the Shakhtar Donetsk home stadium. He seemed unfazed by the moment and never got pushed around by the French. Late sub Theo, however, never even touched the ball in his one-minute cameo on the pitch. Hodgson clearly rated the teen higher than his precursor.

But then came Friday and the England/Sweden match. England went up after Andy Carroll shocked the world and forgot to blow it. Then England went down 2-1, Hodgson signaled for a substitutio,n and who should pull them level but fresh supersub Walcott, his first goal for England since the hat trick against Croatia in 2008? And then who would dribble, charge deep into the box and deliver the powerful cross to the flukey rebounding backheel of Danny Welbeck that killed off the game and looks to have sent England to the quarters? None other than the original Speedy 1.0 himself. Oxlade-Chamberlain (the 2.0) came on in the 90th minute, but Theo authoritatively made his case for both club and country with his second half display, all the more important as the race for Arsenal wing positions heats up between the two Southampton graduates, especially if Podolski lines up on the left wing at season’s start, as expected. (Obviously all depends on the $64.44 million dollar question of RvP’s presence/absence.)

As for possible Arsenal recruits, Yann M’Vila and Oliver Giroud of France seem good prospects, even if neither has really had a chance to fully shine at the tournament, though for different reasons (knee, former; Karim Benzema, latter). Each played about 20 minutes in the match against Ukraine on Friday. And Samir Nasri showed that he’s still good, if still despicable and utterly devoid of any gratitude to his former team or coach. Open letter to Emmanuel Frimpong: at your earliest convenience, please tweet, “If hating weak chins is wrong, I don’t want to be right.” Or just hand that punk a pimpslap beatdown. Word, Dench.

Wayne Rooney is now eligible to rejoin the starting XI of the English squad, but Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain have deputized well in the meantime and kept the English firmly in the competition under Roy Hodgson’s tightly structured defensive regiment. Rooney could catapult the team to the knockouts, but that is far from the point here. The Euros is a way to see Arsenal players in new and different rescramblings, not about hyping players from Manchester United, no matter how hair-transplanted or talented. Any such trains of thought are hugely and boringly off-topic. And to the extent that they do register, hugely irritating.

Stay tuned for the next installment of The State of the Union: Arsenal, Polkraine. May an Arsenal player be hoisting the trophy two weeks hence.

England Photography Preview

Match Preview: Stoke vs. Arsenal

April 27, 2012 — by Rob Kirby

Stoke away has time and again proven the undoing of Arsenal, with the Gunners having returned from the Britannia Stadium with nary a point to show for their efforts on three of the past four visits. Add to that the troubling statistic that Arsenal has not won a league game in which currently injured midfield stalwart Mikel Arteta has not played and this match is far from a gimme. All that said, let’s hypothesize that Arsenal can pull it out. Arsenal needs to leave the northern lands with a point or more, and players and fans alike really, really want the team to take all three on Saturday to maintain third in the league. (For U.S. viewers, the match airs on ESPN2 at 10am EST.)

So, Arteta’s out for the final three games, but Tomas Rosicky has bounced back from illness and will likely partner the unfairly criticized Aaron Ramsey in front of Alex Song. Abou Diaby does not even get a chance to test his ever-precarious fitness, as he’s gone viral and come down with some sort of bug himself. However, after having had to sit out the match against his home club, Yossi Benayoun is eligible again and back in the mix. This could prove hugely important, as the Israeli puts in the sort of workrate you wish for from every player. Diaby, due to his size, would possibly have gotten the nod (until hobbling off injured from trademark Stoke thuggery) ahead of Ramsey, but in his absence I’d expect Ramsey, Rosicky and Song, with Benayoun as a substitute late on.

As for the wide positions, Theo Walcott’s out and all hamstrung until season’s end, although there’s some talk of him returning for West Brom for the final match of the season on May 13. As a result, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain seems likely to swap in for Walcott, which could work well, since he’s a tough kid to muscle around. On the left, Gervinho would represent the most logical choice. Ramsey has not worked out on the left in previous test runs and is needed in the center of the pitch, regardless. (And it cannot be forgotten that Ramsey certainly remembers all too well Ryan Shawcross snapping his leg on this ground two years ago.)

For other line-up possibilities, the boss may opt for Benayoun on the left, but I do quite like the idea of advancing left back Andre Santos to an attacking wing position. He’s got an eye for goal and he has a natural inclination to go forward, and with Kieran Gibbs at left back with Santos as the left winger, things could be interesting. Ramsey does not seem to fit in the role, and Santos’ bulk could neutralize some of the physicality of the Stokesters. All that said, the natural fit would be Gervinho. Perhaps it’s too important a game to be tinkering with huge variances from the formula, though the Gibbs/Santos combo could be an idea for some future date.

Otherwise at back, aside from choice of left back, the team picks itself: Szczesny, Bacary Sagna, Laurent Koscielny and Thomas Vermaelen. Sagna consistently delivers, Koscielny has proven a defensive rock this season, Vermaelen offers solidity and goalscoring ability and Szczesny is a no-brainer. (Sorry, Lucasz.)

And what the hell, for striker, let’s gamble on Robin van Persie, the player and PFA Footballer of the Year who scores approximately 99% of our goals, 27 in the league thus far this season. Without Walcott, the main supply line for van Persie, and Arteta, the remaining players will need to figure out how to get service to van Persie—no small feat considering Stoke’s skill at the anti-possession game. Call it negative tactics if you wish, but at the end of the day Stoke are playing to their strengths, which is only sensible. If interested, check out Harry Pearson’s article in the Guardian about how Chelsea beat Barcelona by adopting Stoke’s brand of siege defense.

Stoke knows how to grind out results, especially at home. They’ve conceded an average of only one goal per game at Britannia Stadium this season. On home grounds, they’ve defeated Tottenham and Liverpool and held Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea. Conversely, they’ve been undone by some of the minnow teams, so perhaps the idea is to fight like minnows and emerge victorious. It worked for Sunderland, West Brom and QPR…

Smarting after the 3-0 loss to Newcastle last weekend, they’ll look to bounce back by hoofing long balls to their top-scoring height mutant Peter Crouch (9 league goals). Defender Andy Wilkinson misses out with a groin strain, while Jermaine Pennant, co-leader in assists, has recovered from virus and looks likely to start on the bench. So, tactically, expect long balls down the field to Crouch augmented by a plan to exploit Arsenal’s perennial undoing, the set piece. Corners to Crouch, deadballs to Crouch, Rory Delap Delap throw-ins to Crouch. Stoke has scored the highest proportion of goals from set-pieces in this season’s Premier League, for 63% of their goal tally.

Fortunately, according to Opta, Szczesny has nabbed 98.5 per cent of crosses he has come for this season, a better rate than any other Premier League goalie. But these are all numbers, averages over a season, and this is one 90-minute match of soccer. Suffice it to say, however, it’s important to shut down the wannabe basketball center and shut down the long-distance service to the big man.

And if the long-ball approach isn’t working for Stoke, Shawcross will undoubtedly aim to go berserker-style on ankles, legs or other available snappable body parts. He’s not that kind of player, of course, but sometimes you have to take one (off) for the team.

The Potters have won just one of their last seven games, with three draws. Let’s make that one in eight and do everything in our power to take all three points, stiff-arm the chasing pack and hang on to third.

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If:	Czech Republic win	draw	Poland win
Greece win	Czech Republic; Greece	Greece and Russia or Czech Republic¹	Poland; Greece
draw	Czech Republic; Russia	Russia; Czech Republic	Russia and Poland²
Russia win	Russia; Czech Republic	Russia; Czech Republic	Russia; Poland