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Brazil vs Netherlands: Liveblog/Open Thread

July 2, 2010 — by Suman51

1998 World Cup Semi-Final: Holland's captain Frank De Boer after his team were knocked out by Brazil in a penalty shoot-out

[Note: We’re setting this up as a liveblog, but we’ll probably be too focused on the game to actually do so.  So we’ll treat this one as an open thread.  We’ll be throwing up some in-game comments–please do the same!]

Doesn’t it feel like a whole new, more compressed and more intense tournament starts today? Eight teams remaining, seven games to go (well, eight if you count the 3rd place game–but who really does?), beginning with four quarterfinal matchups–two today (Brazil vs Netherlands followed by Uruguay vs Ghana) and two tomorrow (Argentina vs Germany followed by Spain vs Paraguay).

The first of these may just be the most highly anticipated: Brazil vs Netherlands. What to say about this match? Obviously, this might just be a true classic.

Brazil has emerged as the clear favorite to win the tournament (yet again–this would be their sixth World Cup!), while the Netherlands are one of only two teams that have won all 4 of their games (Argentina being the other). Both teams on long unbeaten streaks (NED 23, BRA 11), and both are quite capable of stylish play.  Remarkably, in something of role reversal, this edition of the Seleção Brasileira features more of team concept, while the Oranje as a group have perhaps a little more flair.

Brazil is heavily favored to win–it will be a shocker if Holland can pull off the upset, but if anyone is going to beat Brazil in this tournament, the Dutch have a good a chance as anybody left in the tournament. As Dutch footballing legend Ruud Gullit just said on ESPN, if the Dutch can win this game, he believes they’ll have the confidence to win the whole thing–the big trophy that’s lacking from the rich (but frustrating) history of Dutch football.

The Dutch have the hard guys in the midfield (van Bommel, de Jong, Kuyt tracking back) to put the hurt on Kaka et al, and Brazil may be very thin in the midfield today: Ramires is out due to yellow cards, Elano is out due to an ankle injury, and both Felipe Melo and Juan Baptista are doubtful, also due to injuries.  The Dutch midfield has been playing well, doing its job in maintaining possession when the Dutch have the ball, regaining it with a high workrate and hard tackling when they don’t.  van Bommel, de Jong, Sneijder and Kuyt could end up giving a undermanned Brazil trouble in midfield, where games are won or lost..advantage Holland?

On attack, the Dutch attack have as much talent as anybody.  Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie, and Wesley Sneijder of course–though perhaps we’ll see the petulant van Persie pulled in favor of one the hungry speedy cocky Dutch yougsters–Ibrahim Affelay or especially Eljero Elia–as he was in the Round of 16 match against Slovakia.  Or will Dutch coach Bert van Marwijk take a risk and sacrifice either van Bommel or de Jong, or even, heaven-forbid, Kuyt, in favor of the much more dangerous Elia? Probably not.  In any case, watching some subset of all these speedy and technically gifted Dutch guys going up against Brazil’s iron defense–Lucio, Maicon, Juan, Michel Bastos–will be a treat to watch.  Robben in particular is as dynamic and dangerous in attack as anybody these days, and he seems to be getting stronger with each game, with relatively fresh legs after sitting out the first two group games due to a hamstring injury.

Specifically, the Oranje attack may look to work the seam between Brazilian left back Michel Bastos and whoever plays inside him (Kleberson?), with right winger Robben running at Bastos–particularly if Bastos gets caught up front in attack, as Brazilian backs are wont to do (though Baston less so than right back Maicon, and these Brazilian backs less so than in the past, playing as they do under the disciplined iron fist of Dunga).  Let’s see if Robben can work that seam, and find the opportunity to make his patented cut into the center of the field from the right wing.  Sneijder will be in that space also. If the Dutch are to score (Brazil has given up only two relatively meaningless goals in this tournament–one to North Korea and one to Ivory Coast, in both cases after Brazil had established a commanding lead), that could very well be where their goal comes from.

But it seems like where Brazil wins is with their attack against the Dutch defense.  Who are those guys the Dutch have in the back?  Dutch captain Giovanni van Brockhurst has seemingly been in his left back position forever, and although he and his mates (van der Wiel, Heitinga, and Mathijsen) are all quality players, how are they going to keep up with Fabiano, Robinho, whoever else-o Brazil will throw at them, with Kaka orchestrating the attack out of the midfield?  Particularly if they give up the sort of chances they allowed the Slovaks in the 2nd half of their Round of 16 game–although the Slovaks failed to convert (at least until a late PK), you can be sure the Brazilians will not.

The question is, will either manager commit from the start to relentless attack to make that classic?  Could we be treated to van Bronckhorst and Maicon passing each other by for 90 minutes?  Probably not.  The price to pay from the press, fans, and management for taking such a risk is much too high for Dunga or van Marwijk to take that approach.  Look for both sides to be playing conservatively, maintaining possession and looking for rare opportunities to attach and get a precious goal.  Don’t be surprised if, despite all the offensive firepower that will be on the field, the game ends 1-0, 1-1, or even 0-0, and may even end in PKs.

We are just 30 minutes from kickoff–starting lineups and the ever-present and beckoning comment box below!

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Starting lineups:

Brazil: Julio Cesar, Maicon, Lucio, Juan, Michel Bastos, Dani Alves, Felipe Melo, Silva, Kaka, Robinho, Luis Fabiano (Subs: Gomes, Luisao, Thiago Silva, Gilberto, Josue, Julio Baptista, Kleberson, Nilmar, Grafite, Doni)

Netherlands: Stekelenburg, Van Der Wiel, Heitinga, Mathijsen, Van Bronckhorst, Van Bommel, De Jong, Robben, Sneijder, Kuyt, van Persie.
Subs: Vorm, Boulahrouz, Ooijer, De Zeeuw, Braafheid, Elia, Schaars, Babel, Afellay, Huntelaar, Van der Vaart, Boschker.

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51 comments

  • FrankinSD

    July 12, 2010 at 1:05 PM

    I wonder if Paul the Octopus could accurately determine when BP will plug the leak – No one else seems able

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