The group stage is behind us–60 goals in 24 matches over 12 days–and now the quarterfinals of Euro 2012 are upon us. Four matches in four days, starting with the first kicking off in a few hours. Here are your fixtures, along with a link for each:
Referee: Howard Webb (ENG) – Stadium: National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw (POL)
Zonal Marking’s Czech Republic v Portugal preview: “The key battle is likely to be down the left flank. This is Portugal’s biggest strength going forward – they have the goalscoring potential of Ronaldo coming inside, and the overlapping threat of Fabio Coentrao bombing down the outside. But this means they’re also weak defensively down that side: all four goals they’ve conceded have originated from that side of the pitch, and Ronaldo’s non-tracking against Denmark was a problem Paulo Bento should have resolved earlier. As it happens, the right has been the strongest area of the Czech side…”
Euro 2012 vs. Euro Crisis: Germany and Greece Face Off in Symbolic Football Match: “For months, Germans have been complaining of Greek profligacy while Greeks have been griping about German bullying. Now, the two countries will have it out on the football pitch. The symbolism of Friday night’s match has become difficult to ignore.”
Jonathan Wilson poses The Question: position or possession?: “The flaw of Spain’s tiki-taka is that a team can control possession or it can control position, but it can’t do both.”
We’ve nearly reached the end of the Group Stage. Two matches to go in Group D today: Sweden-France and England-Ukraine, which will determine the final two quarterfinalists. Already in the final eight: Czech Republic, Greece, Germany, Portugal, Spain, and Italy.
The latter two claimed first and second in Group C with tense victories yesterday. Spain beat upstart Croatia 1-0 off a 88′ tiki-taka type goal: Cesc Fábregas with a looping lofted ball over the defense to Andrés Iniesta, who was just barely onsides, and who then played a square ball to substitute Jesús Navas, allowing him to blast it home unopposed. But there were tense moments for Spain before that–most memorably, Spanish captain and goalkeeper Iker Casillas denying Croatia’s Ivan Rakitic when it was still scoreless. It was a crucial save, since a Croatia win, combined with an Italy win, would have see Spain shockingly eliminated. As it is, Croatia goes home, but they certainly impressed in this tournament.
Italy finally won a game, 2-0 over Ireland, though it was also a tight game. Mario Balotelli added a spectacular insurance goal in the 90′–after which he was spectacularly gagged by his teammate Leonardo Bonnucci.
On to Group D. Sweden is out, so it’s France, England, or Ukraine for the final two spots in the last eight. France or England advance with at least a draw–hence, Ukraine need to win in order to advance. I’ll be wearing my Shevchenko jersey and rooting for them to do so.
Today’s fixtures, current group standings, and scenario matrix:
Though yesterday’s Group of Death final day had the potential to surprise like Group A’s did on Saturday, it ultimately worked out according to form. Germany finished off the group with 3 victories, while Portugal showed how pathetic this edition of the Oranje were–sending them to their third straight defeat, and back to a very unhappy Holland.
On to Group C. Ireland is out of contention, but any two of out of Spain, Italy, and Croatia could advance. Remarkably, Croatia advances with a win or a scored draw–and a Croatia win combined with an Italy win would send defending World Cup and Euro 2008 champions back to Spain.
Here are today’s fixtures, current group standings, the scenario matrix, and some preview notes:
On the next match day (18 June), the teams advancing from this group (winner; runner-up) will be:[1][2]
If:
Croatia win
draw
Spain win
Italy win
Croatia; Italy
Spain, and Croatia or Italy1
Spain; Italy
draw
Croatia; Spain
Spain; Croatia
Spain; Croatia
Ireland win
Croatia; Spain
Spain; Croatia
Spain; Croatia
Positions determined by game scores:
if Croatia-Spain draw 0–0, Italy; Spain
if Croatia-Spain draw 1–1
AND if Italy wins by one goal or 2–0, Spain; Croatia
OR if Italy wins by two goals and scores at least three goals, Spain; Italy
OR if Italy wins by three goals or 4–0, Spain; Italy
OR if Italy wins by four or more goals and scores at least five goals, Italy; Spain
if Croatia-Spain draw 2–2 or higher, Spain; Croatia
The match to watch is Croatia-Spain. It will be a huge surprise if Italy doesn’t beat an Ireland squad that doesn’t have anything to play for (and hasn’t played well at all in their first two matches).
For Spain, it looks like Fernando Torres has solidified a spot as striker in Spain’s starting XI. Here’s how Vincente del Bosque lined them up (and the subs he used) in their 4-0 roll over Ireland:
Iker Casillas, Gerard Piqué, Jordi Alba, Sergio Ramos, Álvaro Arbeloa, David Silva, Xavi, Xabi Alonso (Javi Martínez, 65), Andrés Iniesta (Santiago Cazorla, 80), Sergio Busquets, Fernando Torres (Francesc Fábregas, 74)
We were heartened to see Javi Martínez and Santi Cazorla get some minutes. The next generation of Spanish football, and playing outside the Madrid-Barcelona hegemony (Javi Martínez at Athletic Bilbao, Santi Cazorla at Málaga; read this piece in Run of Play comparing Martínez to the incomparable Redondo). We’d also like to see Fernando Llorente, also of Athletic Bilbao, get in the game and lead the line. See below for video of El Rey León.
For Croatia, we wrote up the following sketch of their squad prior to their 1-1 draw against Italy last week:
For Croatia, most of the focus is on Tottenham Hotspurs midfield playmaker Luka Modrić. But their squad is peppered with players who have made names for themselves at relatively “big” clubs abroad: strikers Nikica Jelavić (Everton), Mario Mandžukić (Wolfsburg), and Eduardo (now Shakhtar Donetsk, previously Arsenal); midfielder Niko Kranjčar (also Spurs), Ivan Perišić (Borussia Dortmund), Ivan Rakitić (Sevilla), and Danijel Pranjić (Bayern Munich); and defenders Darijo Srna (also Shakhtar) and Vedran Ćorluka (Bayer Leverkeusen).
If Group B’s closing matches today is anything like yesterday’s crazy conclusion to Group A, we’re in for a doozy. The two unlikely outcomes–1-0 victories for Greece and Czech Republic over Russia and Poland, respectively–led to those two teams advancing to the quarterfinals.
The combinatorics of the Group of Death are just as convoluted as they were for Group A. Via wikipedia:
On the last match day (17 June) the teams advancing from this group (winner; runner-up) will be:[6][7]
If:
Portugal win
draw
Netherlands win
Denmark win
Denmark, and Portugal or Germany1
Denmark; Germany
Denmark; Germany
draw
Germany; Portugal
Germany; Portugal
Germany; Denmark
Germany win
Germany; Portugal
Germany; Portugal
Germany; Portugal or Netherlands2
Positions determined by score of Denmark v Germany
(a) Portugal; Denmark – if Denmark win 1–0
(b) Denmark; Germany – if Denmark win by 1 goal and score at least 3
(c) Denmark; Portugal – if Denmark win 2–1 or by at least 2 goals
Portugal will be runner-up if they lose by 1 goal; otherwise the Netherlands will be runner-up.
The last round of group stage matches starts today, with the last two matches in Group A–meaning that we’ll have our first two quarterfinalists by the end of the day. It also means the day’s two matches are played simultaneously. So get your picture-in-picture ready–or put one on your TV and stream the other on your computer. Or better yet, head to your local footy-friendly watering hole–we’ll try to watch at least one of the next few days at our local spot, WoodworkBK.
The match to watch today is Czech Republic-Poland. Poland will be playing in front of a partisan home crowd in Wroclaw, while Czech captain and playmaker (and Gunner) Tomáš Rosický (“the Little Mozart of football”, as we detailed in an extended postscript to this post) is doubtful following an Achilles tendon injury suffered against Greece. So Poland are perhaps the favorites–but they have yet to win a match, and the pressure will be on them. For Poland the focus and onus will again be on the Dortmund trio–attacking right back Łukasz Piszczek, right-sided midfielder (and captain) Jakub (“Kuba”) Błaszczykowski, and striker Robert Lewandowski. In addition, goalkeeper (and another Gunner) Wojciech Szczęsny returns after a one-game suspension for the red card he received in the opening match against Greece.
In the other match, Russia, a team that has impressed, should beat a Greece side that hasn’t. But the Russians have a reputation for losing interest and focus–and remarkably Greece would advance with a win. For Russia the standout performers have been captain Andrei Arshavin (still on Arsenal’s books, but went back to Mother Russia in January on loan to his home club of Zenit St. Petersburg) and youngster Alan Dzagoev–who is, as Eastern European football expert Jonathan Wilson writes today, finally meeting Russia’s expectations.
See below for Group A standings and today’s fixtures (via UEFA.com), and below that a scenario analysis (via wikipedia) of which teams advances in each of the 9 outcomes (3 possible outcomes in each of the 2 matches implies 3^2 = 9 possible outcomes). Although it’s even more complicated than that, as certain of those scenarios bring into play goal differential (the first tie-breaker).
In fact, it appears that not only do all four teams have a chance to advance, but that each of the six 2-team combinations is still a possibility. No wonder betfair.com writes: “I’m not too sure who will be more interested in the final round of group matches in Groups A and B: football fans or mathematicians. To say things are tight is an understatement. To say they’re complicated is a fair statement.”
On the last match day (16 June) the teams advancing from this group (winner; runner-up) will be:[1][2][3]
If:
Czech Republic win
draw
Poland win
Greece win
Czech Republic; Greece
Greece and Russia or Czech Republic1
Poland; Greece
draw
Czech Republic; Russia
Russia; Czech Republic
Russia and Poland2
Russia win
Russia; Czech Republic
Russia; Czech Republic
Russia; Poland
Positions determined by score of Greece v Russia
(a) Russia; Greece – if Greece win by 1 or 2 goals
(b) Greece; Russia – if Greece win by 3 to 5 goals
(c) Greece; Czech Republic – if Greece win by at least 6 goals
Poland win the group if they win by at least 4 goals (3 if they score at least 4 more than Russia); otherwise Russia win the group
The last day of the 2nd round of group stage games, with Group D in action today. Yesterday’s Group C matches were a contrast–a tight match between Italy and Croatia that ended in a 1-1 draw, followed by a blowout 4-0 win for Spain, eliminating Ireland.
The Group of Death finally lived up to expectations yesterday, with a thrilling match–probably the best of the tournament so far. But it wasn’t the big cross-border rivalry matchup that everyone was eagerly anticipating, but rather the Denmark-Portugal match. It ended 3-2 for Portugal, but only after former Arsenal man Nicky B nearly lived up to his self-image by scoring 2 headed goals to bring the Danes level–and after equally self-regarding superstar Cristiano Ronaldo choked on two breakaways that could have put the game away. It fell to Porto striker Silvestre Varela to recover a much-needed win for the Portuguese, via a spectacular 87′ strike.
In the late game, the Dutch were again very disappointing–failing to rise to the occasion. They missed a couple early chances–most conspicuously, again, by Robin Van Persie, who failed to connect with a lofted ball over the top from Mark van Bommel (unlike his memorablegoals for Arsenal this past year, where the lofted ball usually came from the foot of Alex Song)Germany scored two too-easy goals. The finishes, both by Mario Gomez, weren’t easy, but the buildup that put him through was. In both cases, it was Bastian Schweinsteiger who unlocked the shaky Dutch without much difficulty–in great part thanks to the fact that he drifted into an attacking position completely unmarked. Back in the Netherlands, no doubt, there will be questions about the Dutch midfield, and about manager Bert van Marwijk’s decision to go with largely the same selection that failed to impress nor produce against Denmark–in particular his decision to start the destructive duo of van Bommel and Nigel de Jong in defensive midfield, while leaving Klaus-Jan Huntelaar and Rafael van der Vaart on the bench until the 2nd half.
So the Grim Reaper is knocking on the Dutch door (they’ll need an unlikely combination of events Sunday to claim 2nd place in the group–including help from the Germans). But on to today’s Group C fixtures–two interesting tactical matchups:
Referee: Pedro Proença (POR) – Stadium: Arena Gdansk, Gdansk (POL)
The early match has Croatian manager Slaven Bilic, who is “seeking one last hurrah from Croatia” before moving to Moscow in the fall, matching up his 4-1-3-2 formation against Prandelli’s much-discussed 3-5-2, which worked to great effect against Spain on Sunday. For Croatia, most of the focus is on Tottenham Hotspurs midfield playmaker Luka Modrić. But their squad is peppered with players who have made names for themselves at relatively “big” clubs abroad: strikers Nikica Jelavić (Everton), Mario Mandžukić (Wolfsburg), and Eduardo (now Shakhtar Donetsk, previously Arsenal); midfielder Niko Kranjčar (also Spurs), Ivan Perišić (Borussia Dortmund), Ivan Rakitić (Sevilla), and Danijel Pranjić (Bayern Munich); and defenders Darijo Srna (also Shakhtar) and Vedran Ćorluka (Bayer Leverkeusen).
Check back in between matches, when we’ll try to get some notes about Spain-Ireland up in this space. Meanwhile, join us in the comments below for match commentary.
Two good matches in Group A yesterday (Poland 1 – 1 Russia – see here, here and here); and Czech Republic 2 – 1 Greece).
But today it’s the Group of Death. Already an instant classic in the first match of the day, and a yet another huge match in perhaps the biggest intra-Euro rivalry in the 2nd match:
France
England
Ukraine
Sweden
Spain
Croatia
Italy
Republic of Ireland
Russia
Czech Republic
Poland
Greece
