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Euro 2012PreviewSchedule

Euro 2012 Matchday 11: Will Croatia Send the Azzurri Back to Italy (and/or La Furia Roja Back to Spain)?

June 18, 2012 — by Suman2

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Though yesterday’s Group of Death final day had the potential to surprise like Group A’s did on Saturday, it ultimately worked out according to form. Germany finished off the group with 3 victories, while Portugal showed how pathetic this edition of the Oranje were–sending them to their third straight defeat, and back to a very unhappy Holland.

On to Group C. Ireland is out of contention, but any two of out of Spain, Italy, and Croatia could advance.  Remarkably, Croatia advances with a win or a scored draw–and a Croatia win combined with an Italy win would send defending World Cup and Euro 2008 champions back to Spain.

Here are today’s fixtures, current group standings, the scenario matrix, and some preview notes:

18 June 2012
Croatia Croatia Spain Spain
Referee: Wolfgang Stark (GER) – Stadium: Arena Gdansk, Gdansk (POL)
Italy Italy Republic of Ireland Republic of Ireland
Referee: Cüneyt Çakır (TUR) – Stadium: Municipal Stadium Poznan, Poznan (POL)

 

Group C

Teams P W D L F A +/- Pts
Spain Spain 2 1 1 0 5 1 4 4
Croatia Croatia 2 1 1 0 4 2 2 4
Italy Italy 2 0 2 0 2 2 0 2
Republic of Ireland Republic of Ireland 2 0 0 2 1 7 -6 0
Scenario matrix via wikipedia:

Republic of Ireland has been eliminated.

On the next match day (18 June), the teams advancing from this group (winner; runner-up) will be:[1][2]

If: Croatia win draw Spain win
Italy win Croatia; Italy Spain, and Croatia or Italy1 Spain; Italy
draw Croatia; Spain Spain; Croatia Spain; Croatia
Ireland win Croatia; Spain Spain; Croatia Spain; Croatia
  1. Positions determined by game scores:
  • if Croatia-Spain draw 0–0, Italy; Spain
  • if Croatia-Spain draw 1–1
    • AND if Italy wins by one goal or 2–0, Spain; Croatia
    • OR if Italy wins by two goals and scores at least three goals, Spain; Italy
    • OR if Italy wins by three goals or 4–0, Spain; Italy
    • OR if Italy wins by four or more goals and scores at least five goals, Italy; Spain
  • if Croatia-Spain draw 2–2 or higher, Spain; Croatia

The match to watch is Croatia-Spain. It will be a huge surprise if Italy doesn’t beat an Ireland squad that doesn’t have anything to play for (and hasn’t played well at all in their first two matches).

For Spain, it looks like Fernando Torres has solidified a spot as striker in Spain’s starting XI.  Here’s how Vincente del Bosque lined them up (and the subs he used) in their 4-0 roll over Ireland:

Iker Casillas, Gerard Piqué, Jordi Alba, Sergio Ramos, Álvaro Arbeloa, David Silva, Xavi, Xabi Alonso (Javi Martínez, 65), Andrés Iniesta (Santiago Cazorla, 80), Sergio Busquets, Fernando Torres (Francesc Fábregas, 74)

We were heartened to see Javi Martínez and Santi Cazorla get some minutes. The next generation of Spanish football, and playing outside the Madrid-Barcelona hegemony (Javi Martínez at Athletic Bilbao, Santi Cazorla at Málaga; read this piece in Run of Play comparing Martínez to the incomparable Redondo). We’d also like to see Fernando Llorentealso of Athletic Bilbao, get in the game and lead the line. See below for video of El Rey León.

For Croatia, we wrote up the following sketch of their squad prior to their 1-1 draw against Italy last week:

For Croatia, most of the focus is on Tottenham Hotspurs midfield playmaker Luka Modrić. But their squad is peppered with players who have made names for themselves at relatively “big” clubs abroad: strikers Nikica Jelavić (Everton), Mario Mandžukić (Wolfsburg), and Eduardo (now Shakhtar Donetsk, previously Arsenal); midfielder Niko Kranjčar (also Spurs), Ivan Perišić (Borussia Dortmund), Ivan Rakitić (Sevilla), and Danijel Pranjić (Bayern Munich); and defenders Darijo Srna (also Shakhtar) and Vedran Ćorluka (Bayer Leverkeusen).

The standout performer has been Mandžukić, with three goals in the first two games. Cf. “Mario Mandzukic masks madness to strike right for Croatia.”

Euro 2012PreviewSchedule

Euro 2012 Matchday 10: Who Will Survive the Group of Death?

June 17, 2012 — by Suman2

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If Group B’s closing matches today is anything like yesterday’s crazy conclusion to Group A, we’re in for a doozy. The two unlikely outcomes–1-0 victories for Greece and Czech Republic over Russia and Poland, respectively–led to those two teams advancing to the quarterfinals.

The combinatorics of the Group of Death are just as convoluted as they were for Group A. Via wikipedia:

On the last match day (17 June) the teams advancing from this group (winner; runner-up) will be:[6][7]

If: Portugal win draw Netherlands win
Denmark win Denmark, and Portugal or Germany1 Denmark; Germany Denmark; Germany
draw Germany; Portugal Germany; Portugal Germany; Denmark
Germany win Germany; Portugal Germany; Portugal Germany; Portugal or Netherlands2
  1. Positions determined by score of Denmark v Germany
    (a) Portugal; Denmark – if Denmark win 1–0
    (b) Denmark; Germany – if Denmark win by 1 goal and score at least 3
    (c) Denmark; Portugal – if Denmark win 2–1 or by at least 2 goals
  2. Portugal will be runner-up if they lose by 1 goal; otherwise the Netherlands will be runner-up.

References

6. “Euro 2012 Diary: Mathematicians to work out who qualifies from Groups A and B“. Betfair. 14 June 2012. Retrieved 14 June 2012.
7. Johnson, Dale (13 June 2012). “Euro 2012 Group permutations“. ESPN. Retrieved 15 June 2012.

 

The fixtures:

17 June 2012
Portugal Portugal Netherlands Netherlands
Referee: Nicola Rizzoli (ITA) – Stadium: Metalist Stadium, Kharkiv (UKR)
Denmark Denmark Germany Germany
Referee: Carlos Velasco Carballo (ESP) – Stadium: Arena Lviv, Lviv (UKR)

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Euro 2012PreviewSchedule

Matchday 9: Group Stage Enters Final Round–Greece-Russia & Czech Republic-Poland Today

June 15, 2012 — by Suman

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The last round of group stage matches starts today, with the last two matches in Group A–meaning that we’ll have our first two quarterfinalists by the end of the day. It also means the day’s two matches are played simultaneously. So get your picture-in-picture ready–or put one on your TV and stream the other on your computer.  Or better yet, head to your local footy-friendly watering hole–we’ll try to watch at least one of the next few days at our local spot, WoodworkBK.

The match to watch today is Czech Republic-Poland. Poland will be playing in front of a partisan home crowd in Wroclaw, while Czech captain and playmaker (and GunnerTomáš Rosický (“the Little Mozart of football”, as we detailed in an extended postscript to this post) is doubtful following an Achilles tendon injury suffered against Greece.  So Poland are perhaps the favorites–but they have yet to win a match, and the pressure will be on them. For Poland the focus and onus will again be on the Dortmund trio–attacking right back Łukasz Piszczek, right-sided midfielder (and captain) Jakub (“Kuba”) Błaszczykowski, and striker Robert Lewandowski.  In addition, goalkeeper (and another Gunner) Wojciech Szczęsny returns after a one-game suspension for the red card he received in the opening match against Greece.

In the other match, Russia, a team that has impressed, should beat a Greece side that hasn’t. But the Russians have a reputation for losing interest and focus–and remarkably Greece would advance with a win.  For Russia the standout performers have been captain Andrei Arshavin (still on Arsenal’s books, but went back to Mother Russia in January on loan to his home club of Zenit St. Petersburg) and youngster Alan Dzagoev–who is, as Eastern European football expert Jonathan Wilson writes today, finally meeting Russia’s expectations.

See below for Group A standings and today’s fixtures (via UEFA.com), and below that a scenario analysis (via wikipedia) of which teams advances in each of the 9 outcomes (3 possible outcomes in each of the 2 matches implies 3^2 = 9 possible outcomes). Although it’s even more complicated than that, as certain of those scenarios bring into play goal differential (the first tie-breaker).

In fact, it appears that not only do all four teams have a chance to advance, but that each of the six 2-team combinations is still a possibility. No wonder betfair.com writes: “I’m not too sure who will be more interested in the final round of group matches in Groups A and B: football fans or mathematicians. To say things are tight is an understatement. To say they’re complicated is a fair statement.”

Group A

Teams P W D L F A +/- Pts
Russia Russia 2 1 1 0 5 2 3 4
Czech Republic Czech Republic 2 1 0 1 3 5 -2 3
Poland Poland 2 0 2 0 2 2 0 2
Greece Greece 2 0 1 1 2 3 -1 1
16 June 2012
Greece Greece Russia Russia
Referee: Jonas Eriksson (SWE) – Stadium: National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw (POL)
Czech Republic Czech Republic Poland Poland
Referee: Craig Thomson (SCO) – Stadium: Municipal Stadium Wroclaw, Wroclaw (POL)

Scenario analysis via UEFA Euro 2012 Group A – Wikipedia:

On the last match day (16 June) the teams advancing from this group (winner; runner-up) will be:[1][2][3]

If: Czech Republic win draw Poland win
Greece win Czech Republic; Greece Greece and Russia or Czech Republic1 Poland; Greece
draw Czech Republic; Russia Russia; Czech Republic Russia and Poland2
Russia win Russia; Czech Republic Russia; Czech Republic Russia; Poland
  1. Positions determined by score of Greece v Russia
    (a) Russia; Greece – if Greece win by 1 or 2 goals
    (b) Greece; Russia – if Greece win by 3 to 5 goals
    (c) Greece; Czech Republic – if Greece win by at least 6 goals
  2. Poland win the group if they win by at least 4 goals (3 if they score at least 4 more than Russia); otherwise Russia win the group

 

References

  1. ^ Peter Katsiris (13 June 2012). “UEFA EURO 2012: The Math behind Group A”. Football Hellas. Retrieved 14 June 2012.
  2. ^ “Euro 2012 Diary: Mathematicians to work out who qualifies from Groups A and B”. Betfair. 14 June 2012. Retrieved 14 June 2012.
  3. ^ Johnson, Dale (13 June 2012). “Euro 2012 Group permutations”. ESPN. Retrieved 15 June 2012.

Euro 2012PreviewSchedule

Matchday 8: Ukraine-France & Sweden-England

June 15, 2012 — by Suman

Andriy-Shevchenko-Sweden.jpg

The last day of the 2nd round of group stage games, with Group D in action today. Yesterday’s Group C matches were a contrast–a tight match between Italy and Croatia that ended in a 1-1 draw, followed by a blowout 4-0 win for Spain, eliminating Ireland.

On to today: France travels to far eastern Ukraine to take on the co-hosts (can Ukraine build on King Sheva’s fairytale first game, and continue his quixotic quest to the Kyiv final?); and Sweden plays in England in the Ukrainian capital (read Brian Philips’ new piece in Grantland–“Englands of the Mind: The sound. The fury. The mediocrity.” and BBC on Roy Hodgson – The Sweden Years; although the latter is available to UK users only, so instead read Hodgson’s own words about his Sweden years here)

The fixtures:

15 June 2012
Ukraine Ukraine France France
Referee: Björn Kuipers (NED) – Stadium: Donbass Arena, Donetsk (UKR)
Sweden Sweden England England
Referee: Damir Skomina (SVN) – Stadium: Olympic Stadium, Kyiv (UKR)

Hit us with some comments if/when you watch the matches:

Euro 2012PreviewSchedule

Matchday 7: Yesterday’s Group of Death Wrapup, Italy-Croatia & Spain-Ireland Today

June 14, 2012 — by Suman5

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The Group of Death finally lived up to expectations yesterday, with a thrilling match–probably the best of the tournament so far. But it wasn’t the big cross-border rivalry matchup that everyone was eagerly anticipating, but rather the Denmark-Portugal match. It ended 3-2 for Portugal, but only after former Arsenal man Nicky B nearly lived up to his self-image by scoring 2 headed goals to bring the Danes level–and after equally self-regarding superstar Cristiano Ronaldo choked on two breakaways that could have put the game away.  It fell to Porto striker Silvestre Varela to recover a much-needed win for the Portuguese, via a spectacular 87′ strike.

In the late game, the Dutch were again very disappointing–failing to rise to the occasion. They missed a couple early chances–most conspicuously, again, by Robin Van Persie, who failed to connect with a lofted ball over the top from Mark van Bommel (unlike his memorable goals for Arsenal this past year, where the lofted ball usually came from the foot of Alex Song)Germany scored two too-easy goals.  The finishes, both by Mario Gomez, weren’t easy, but the buildup that put him through was. In both cases, it was Bastian Schweinsteiger who unlocked the shaky Dutch without much difficulty–in great part thanks to the fact that he drifted into an attacking position completely unmarked. Back in the Netherlands, no doubt, there will be questions about the Dutch midfield, and about manager Bert van Marwijk’s decision to go with largely the same selection that failed to impress nor produce against Denmark–in particular his decision to start the destructive duo of van Bommel and Nigel de Jong in defensive midfield, while leaving Klaus-Jan Huntelaar and Rafael van der Vaart on the bench until the 2nd half.

So the Grim Reaper is knocking on the Dutch door (they’ll need an unlikely combination of events Sunday to claim 2nd place in the group–including help from the Germans). But on to today’s Group C fixtures–two interesting tactical matchups:

14 June 2012
Italy Italy Croatia Croatia
Referee: Howard Webb (ENG) – Stadium: Municipal Stadium Poznan, Poznan (POL)
Spain Spain Republic of Ireland Republic of Ireland
Referee: Pedro Proença (POR) – Stadium: Arena Gdansk, Gdansk (POL)

The early match has Croatian manager Slaven Bilic, who is “seeking one last hurrah from Croatia” before moving to Moscow in the fall, matching up his 4-1-3-2 formation against Prandelli’s much-discussed 3-5-2, which worked to great effect against Spain on Sunday.   For Croatia, most of the focus is on Tottenham Hotspurs midfield playmaker Luka Modrić. But their squad is peppered with players who have made names for themselves at relatively “big” clubs abroad: strikers Nikica Jelavić (Everton), Mario Mandžukić (Wolfsburg), and Eduardo (now Shakhtar Donetsk, previously Arsenal); midfielder Niko Kranjčar (also Spurs), Ivan Perišić (Borussia Dortmund), Ivan Rakitić (Sevilla), and Danijel Pranjić (Bayern Munich); and defenders Darijo Srna (also Shakhtar) and Vedran Ćorluka (Bayer Leverkeusen).

Check back in between matches, when we’ll try to get some notes about Spain-Ireland up in this space.  Meanwhile, join us in the comments below for match commentary.

Euro 2012PreviewSchedule

Matchday 6: Group of Death Round 2

June 13, 2012 — by Suman

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Two good matches in Group A yesterday (Poland 1 – 1 Russia – see here, here and here); and Czech Republic 2 – 1 Greece).
But today it’s the Group of Death. Already an instant classic in the first match of the day, and a yet another huge match in perhaps the biggest intra-Euro rivalry in the 2nd match:
13 June 2012
Denmark Denmark 2-3 Portugal Portugal
Referee: Craig Thomson (SCO) – Stadium: Arena Lviv, Lviv (UKR)
Netherlands Netherlands Germany Germany
Referee: Jonas Eriksson (SWE) – Stadium: Metalist Stadium, Kharkiv (UKR)

In addition to our review of the history of this rivalry (“The Spit Hits the Fan“), a few additonal links about Netherlands-Germany:

 

PreviewSchedule

Euro 2012 Matchday 5: Russia Invades Poland

June 12, 2012 — by Suman3

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Yesterday’s match: France and England drew 1-1 in a desultory affair, while Ukraine beat Sweden in a thrilling match at Kyiv’s Olympic Stadium, in front of a delirious home crowd.

Today’s Group A action–the first time we’re seeing teams play their second set of matches: Greece-Czech Republic was the early match, with Czech Republic rebounding from their “Russian concussion” to win 2-1, and put themselves back in contention for 2nd at least.

But the big match of the day is between two nations with a lot of historical baggage that’s being brought to Warsaw today–Russia versus Poland.

Here are the fixtures–scroll down for some preview notes:

12 June 2012
Greece Greece 1-2 Czech Republic Czech Republic
Referee: Stéphane Lannoy (FRA) – Stadium: Municipal Stadium Wroclaw, Wroclaw (POL)
Poland Poland Russia Russia
Referee: Wolfgang Stark (GER) – Stadium: National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw (POL)

The NYTimes provides some historical context to today’s tense match, in a article headlined “In Poland, Match With Russia Goes Far Beyond Soccer“:

Poland is enjoying its turn on the European stage, co-hosting the prestigious European soccer championship, which the country’s leaders hoped to use as a coming-out party for their newly confident nation. There is only one problem, and it is a familiar one: Russia.

Centuries of enmity have defined the relationship between Poland and Russia. Their history is filled with war, conquest and occupation. More recently, a significant minority of Poles have come to believe that the Russians were responsible for the plane crash in 2010 that killed President Lech Kaczynski, his wife and 94 others.

[…]

Add to the mix the plans that Russian fans, celebrating their national holiday, Russia Day, on Tuesday, have made to march to the stadium before the game. Some are said to be planning to wear T-shirts featuring the Soviet hammer and sickle.

“Let’s wait and see what happens on Tuesday, but if Russians decide to promote any Soviet symbols, it’ll be an unprecedented scandal and a real affront to Poland,” said Mariusz Kaminski, 46, a senior member of the opposition Law and Justice Party. “It would be as if Germans visited Tel Aviv sporting swastikas.”

The threat of an outburst from either side, or both, is all the more unfortunate to many Poles because the tournament, from its years of preparation to last week’s opening ceremony, has been such a point of pride.

The European championship was their moment to show off the highways and train stations built in anticipation of the event, as well as top-of-the-line soccer stadiums. Up to now, nearly all of the negative publicity has been directed at the other host country, Ukraine, and its imprisonment of a former prime minister, Yulia V. Tymoshenko.

And from the Ukrainian press, “Битва за Варшаву. Анонс матча Польша vs Россия” (roughly: “The Battle of Warsaw: Russia vs Poland Match Preview”):

 …if the plans are fans of the Russian Federation, as reported by the media, with the emission of paper airplanes on the field with a hint of a plane crash with the Polish president Jaroslaw Kaczynski in Smolensk – the truth, the degree of control at the National Stadium in Warsaw will pass far beyond the mark of a boil.

Approximate composition:

Poland: Tyton – Pischek, Berkey, Wasilewski, Behnisch – Dudka, Murawski, Polanski – Blaschikovski, Obraniak – Lewandowski

Russia: Malafeev – Anyukov, Berezutsky, Ignashevich, Zhirkov – Denisov, Zyryanov, Shirokov – Arshavin, Dzagoev, Kerzhakov

We’re hearing reports now of violent clashes between the Russian and Polish fans within the last couple hours, with Warsaw police making 50+ arrests. Let’s hope things are calm within the stadium and on the pitch for the next couple hours.

 

Euro 2012

Euro 2012 Matchday 4: Cross-Chunnel Match, Україна Hosts Ibra

June 11, 2012 — by Suman

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Interesting day with the first two Group C matches. Italy took the lead against defending champions Spain in the 2nd half, but Silva slipped Cesc through for an equalizer just a few minutes later; it ended 1-1, though both sides had win.  Later, Croatia unlocked Trappatoni’s Irish catenaccio, winning 3-1. Curtains for Ireland?

We finally get to Group D today. Two fairly interesting matches, with France and England building on their 1,000 years of cross-channel rivalry in the early match, and co-host Ukraine (Україна ) taking on Sweden (and hence they face the strikingly compelling and prolific Slavic Swede: he, ZlatanWWZD?) in the capital city of Kyiv, site of the July 1 final match:

11 June 2012
France France England England
Referee: Nicola Rizzoli (ITA) – Stadium: Donbass Arena, Donetsk (UKR)
Ukraine Ukraine Sweden Sweden
Referee: Cüneyt Çakır (TUR) – Stadium: NSC Olimpiyskiy, Kyiv (UKR)

 

Some notes on the Spain selección: odd, and controversial, that manager Vicente del Bosque went essentially 4-6 with his starting lineup. Ostensibly a 4-3-3 I suppose, but the middle 3 were all deep-lying midfielders (Xabi Alonso, Xavi, Sergio Busquets), and the 3 in front of them all attacking/creative midfielders (David Silva, Cesc Fabregas, Andres Iniesta).

As ESPN commentator Steve McManaman said, not a whole lot of pace in that selection. Perhaps that was the motivation for bringing on first Jesus Navas and Fernando Torres in the second half (who came in for Silva & Cesc, respectively). I would still like to see Llorente play–hopefully against Ireland and/or Croatia.

Ditto for the other Athletic Bilbao player on the roster, Javi Martinez.  He’s a young rising star who started out as a deep-lying midfielder–similar to Busquets, and just about as good–that Marcelo Bielsa turned into a center back in Bilbao this past year.  (Sort of like Prandelli had Daniele De Rossi step back into central defense for Italy yesterday, and Pep Guardiola did with Javier Macherano after buying him from Liverpool.)

Though a potential issue with playing Llorente would be service. There were no real wingers in yesterday’s starting XI. Perhaps balls over the top from Xavi or Xabi (or Javi Martinez, if he returns to midfield, in place of Xabi Alonso say)? Little chips from Cesc, Silva Iniesta? Hopefully we’ll see at some point here in the group stage.